Will China Intervene If N.Korea Collapses?

[ErnstBlofeld]

The Chosun Ilbo:

 

The U.S. Defense Department in its annual review of China's rising military might hinted at a warning that Beijing could deploy its troops in North Korea if political instability threatens to spill across the border.

 

"China's leaders hope to prevent regional instability from spilling across China's borders and thereby interfering with economic development or domestic stability. Changes in regional security dynamics -- such as perceived threats to China's ability to access and transport foreign resources, or disruptions on the Korean Peninsula -- could lead to shifts in China's military development and deployment patterns, likely with consequences for neighboring states," as the report delicately phrased it.

 

Put bluntly, the Chinese Army could be deployed along the border with North Korea if the North Korean regime collapses, threatening Beijing's interests.

 

This is the first time the U.S. government has openly mentioned China's possible military response to sudden changes in North Korea, meaning that it is taking a realistic approach to the role China plays in North Korean issues.

 

In May 2008, around 200 Chinese military engineers held an exercise setting up pontoon bridges across the Apnok (or Yalu) River that marks the border with the North and conducted other drills there, in what observers said was a preparation for sudden changes in North Korea.

 

In the defense review, the U.S. forecasts that the Chinese military will intervene in missions outside its borders in the event of "changes in regional security dynamics." A possible reunification of the Korean Peninsula led by South Korea following regime collapse in the North could be one such change. South Korea's efforts to achieve reunification in the event of a regime collapse in North Korea could meet with Chinese opposition if Beijing intends to maintain an allied government there.

 

The "unification tax" President Lee Myung-bak proposed in his Liberation Day speech on Sunday stirred up a tremendous amount of controversy due to perceptions that it reflects the South's intention to absorb North Korea. The presidential office tried to diffuse the situation by saying the purpose of the comments was merely to prepare people for the possibility of reunification, but it remains to be seen whether the international community will buy that line.

 

If both the U.S. and China view a sudden change in North Korea as a real possibility, South Korea, which will feel the brunt of any instability in the North, urgently needs to come up with a response.

 

[ErnstBlofeld]

The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

[Sanguine]

The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

 

Barama hasn't committed it yet? I'm sorta surprised by that. Maybe he just hasn't seen the numbers yet. He knows the immensely rich US can pay that, and probably should for having imperialistically unpure thoughts towards Korea.

[Valin]

The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

 

 

Given the state of North Korea (starvation...etc) this will have to be handled very carefully otherwise it will rapidly devolve into anarchy, something the PRC has a (well justified and historical) fear of.

That it will happen is IMO a forgone conclusion. It's not a matter of If, but When and How.

[AceRimmer]

The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

 

 

Given the state of North Korea (starvation...etc) this will have to be handled very carefully otherwise it will rapidly devolve into anarchy, something the PRC has a (well justified and historical) fear of.

That it will happen is IMO a forgone conclusion. It's not a matter of If, but When and How.

 

I said a few years ago that the Chicoms will move in if North Korea goes out of control, and the US, South Korea, Japan, and even Vietnam will give a wink and a nod, because the last thing anybody wants is the last hardcore Stalinist state, armed with nukes, sliding into anarchy. If the reports are true that Kim Jong Il is on his last legs, there's a question of who will try to replace him, and as much as I distrust the Chicoms, I'd rather have them handle the transition than desperate North Korean generals.

[Valin]

The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

 

 

Given the state of North Korea (starvation...etc) this will have to be handled very carefully otherwise it will rapidly devolve into anarchy, something the PRC has a (well justified and historical) fear of.

That it will happen is IMO a forgone conclusion. It's not a matter of If, but When and How.

 

I said a few years ago that the Chicoms will move in if North Korea goes out of control, and the US, South Korea, Japan, and even Vietnam will give a wink and a nod, because the last thing anybody wants is the last hardcore Stalinist state, armed with nukes, sliding into anarchy. If the reports are true that Kim Jong Il is on his last legs, there's a question of who will try to replace him, and as much as I distrust the Chicoms, I'd rather have them handle the transition than desperate North Korean generals.

 

 

At least they are sane. Talk about setting the bar low.

[ErnstBlofeld]

The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

 

Barama hasn't committed it yet? I'm sorta surprised by that. Maybe he just hasn't seen the numbers yet. He knows the immensely rich US can pay that, and probably should for having imperialistically unpure thoughts towards Korea.

Check out OPLAN-5029

[ErnstBlofeld]

The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

 

 

Given the state of North Korea (starvation...etc) this will have to be handled very carefully otherwise it will rapidly devolve into anarchy, something the PRC has a (well justified and historical) fear of.

That it will happen is IMO a forgone conclusion. It's not a matter of If, but When and How.

 

I said a few years ago that the Chicoms will move in if North Korea goes out of control, and the US, South Korea, Japan, and even Vietnam will give a wink and a nod, because the last thing anybody wants is the last hardcore Stalinist state, armed with nukes, sliding into anarchy. If the reports are true that Kim Jong Il is on his last legs, there's a question of who will try to replace him, and as much as I distrust the Chicoms, I'd rather have them handle the transition than desperate North Korean generals.

 

There is a remote possibility that the Chinese will refrain from invading North Korea only if the ROKA only moves into DPRK .The ROKA must be the leading force into the DPRK. The "invasion" by the ROKA must be quick to implement martial law and immediately begin humanitarian aid.

[Pepper]

There is a remote possibility that the Chinese will refrain from invading North Korea only if the ROKA only moves into DPRK .The ROKA must be the leading force into the DPRK. The "invasion" by the ROKA must be quick to implement martial law and immediately begin humanitarian aid.

 

 

sonofstrangelove

 

Scary scenario if DPRK were to collapse. I don't see the Chinese sitting idly by.

[ErnstBlofeld]

There is a remote possibility that the Chinese will refrain from invading North Korea only if the ROKA only moves into DPRK .The ROKA must be the leading force into the DPRK. The "invasion" by the ROKA must be quick to implement martial law and immediately begin humanitarian aid.

 

 

sonofstrangelove

 

Scary scenario if DPRK were to collapse. I don't see the Chinese sitting idly by.

 

I think DPRK is ready to collapse. The Chinese are very tired of propping up a system that its ready to collapse.In some military circles in China the entire subject of Noeth Korean collapse is taboo.The Chinese will not move if we make a move.It has been rumored that the PRC leadership prefers the South Koreans as a buffer at the Yalu River between the United States and China.