Republicans Gaining Fast

[Valin]

Power Line:

John Hinderaker
7/1/10

Scott Rasmussen samples party identification, and finds Democrats and Republicans in a virtual dead heat, at 35.4%-33.0%. This graphic, showing party identification in June 2008, June 2009 and June 2010, tells the story:



Do the math: two years ago the Dems were + 9.5; one year ago they were + 6.7; today they are + 2.4. If that trend line holds, a year from now Republicans will outnumber Democrats.

Obviously, peeling away Democrats gets harder as you approach nearer the core, those who have serious amounts of money at stake in Democrat rule. But here is the lesson I would draw: the media like to characterize the nation's mood as anti-incumbent, and to some degree that is true. It is also true that today's conservative resurgence, as embodied in the Tea Party movement and related phenomena, is principled, not partisan......(Snip)

[Sabre86]

There are about 10%-15% who will identify with whichever party is the "popular" one. In 2008 and part of 2009, it was the Democrats because Obama was all the rage. Now that same group is falling away and going back to Republican or independent.