Obama and Dems Heading for Electoral Disaster

[Geee]

Washington Examiner:

Obama and Dems heading for electoral disaster
By: BYRON YORK
Chief Political Correspondent
June 25, 2010

All around, there are Democrats telling us their prospects for November are looking up. Things aren't as bad as Republicans say! Health care is becoming more popular! The country wants financial reform! People still like Barack Obama! Isn't Joe Barton awful!

They're fooling themselves. The basic indicators of voters' intentions -- their general mood and attitude toward the policies of Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid -- are clear and solid. Unless those indicators change, and most experts believe that would take a huge, unforeseen event that fundamentally alters the political equation, Democrats are in for serious losses this November. The only question is whether those losses will be big enough for them to lose their huge majorities in the House and Senate. Even if they're not, the party will be badly weakened in the next Congress.

The latest evidence is a new survey from pollsters Peter Hart and Bill McInturff for the Wall Street Journal and NBC. The number of people who say the country is headed in the wrong direction is 62 percent -- the highest it has been since the final days of George W. Bush. The troubled economy, of course, is the most important issue, and 66 percent say they expect the economy to stay the same or get worse in the next year.

"There is a sense across the board that things aren't working," says Republican pollster David Winston.

Obama's approval rating is at 45 percent, versus 48 percent disapproval -- the first time the president has ever been underwater in the Journal poll. (By way of contrast, the president's approval rating was 61 percent in April 2009, his high point in the Journal poll.)

People are not happy about the way Obama is handling the economy, with 50 percent disapproving compared to 46 percent approving. He's also being hurt by the Gulf oil spill. Fifty percent in the survey disapprove of his handling of the crisis, compared to 42 percent who approve. That's not much better than George W. Bush's rating for handling the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which was 53 percent disapproval, 36 percent approval six months after the storm and the media's subsequent battering of Bush.

A president's personal approval rating is often higher than his job performance rating. With Obama, the two are more or less the same: 47 percent personal approval versus 45 percent job approval -- neither very good.

Obama has also taken a fall when it comes to the sometimes hard-to-describe attributes that shape public opinions about leaders. The Journal asked whether people "strongly relate to [Obama] as your president," or whether they related to him somewhat, only a little, or not really at all. The number of people who say they strongly relate to Obama as president has gone from 50 percent on Inauguration Day to 29 percent today, while the number of people who say they don't really relate to him has gone from 8 percent then to 30 percent now. There's clearly a growing alienation with the once enormously popular president.

Of course, Obama isn't on the ballot this November. But his ratings contribute to what Winston calls the public's "overall sense of the ability to govern." From that perspective, Obama's troubles are the Democrats' troubles.

And Democrats in Congress have plenty of their own. When asked their preference for the outcome of this year's elections, 45 percent of those surveyed say they want Congress to be controlled by Republicans, while 43 percent want Democrats in charge. In April 2009, people wanted a Democratic Congress by a margin of 48 to 39.

The pollsters asked whether voters would be more or less enthusiastic about a candidate if they knew he supported a particular position on the issues. The most popular positions were cutting federal spending, reforming Wall Street and repealing the national health care law -- two Republican issues and one Democratic one. By a wide margin, people are more enthusiastic about a candidate who promises to repeal health care than they are about a candidate who is endorsed by Obama.

As strong as the numbers look, smart Republicans are constantly telling each other to calm down and keep working. While the public has soured on Obama and the Democratic leadership, Republicans can't just bash the opposition. "The Democrats have really opened the door for Republicans," Winston says, "and the challenge for Republicans is to lay out for people what they'll get if they get a GOP majority." If Republicans can do that, they'll win big in November.

[Valin]

And the downside is......?

[clearvision]

I hate the way the media uses polls and I wondered about the wording of York's statements so I went and found the original poll results. All though not the main theme of the article, this is the type of bias that ruins all these types of reports for me:

 

"The troubled economy, of course, is the most important issue, and 66 percent say they expect the economy to stay the same or get worse in the next year."

 

The Poll results:

 

Economy will get better: 33%

Economy will get worse: 23%

Economy will stay about the same: 43%

 

So it is true that 66% say same or worse... but it is also true that 76% say it will be better or the same... So the mood of the polled is actually better on the economy than the way it is stated.

[Valin]

I hate the way the media uses polls and I wondered about the wording of York's statements so I went and found the original poll results. All though not the main theme of the article, this is the type of bias that ruins all these types of reports for me:

 

"The troubled economy, of course, is the most important issue, and 66 percent say they expect the economy to stay the same or get worse in the next year."

 

The Poll results:

 

Economy will get better: 33%

Economy will get worse: 23%

Economy will stay about the same: 43%

 

So it is true that 66% say same or worse... but it is also true that 76% say it will be better or the same... So the mood of the polled is actually better on the economy than the way it is stated.

 

 

Good job!

With media bias, it's not so much what is printed as what is not, and how it's printed.

I have no problem with media bias (it is what it is) what does get me is when the (say) NY Times tells me they are not biased in their coverage.

/preaching to the choir

[Argyle58]

I hate the way the media uses polls and I wondered about the wording of York's statements so I went and found the original poll results. All though not the main theme of the article, this is the type of bias that ruins all these types of reports for me:

 

"The troubled economy, of course, is the most important issue, and 66 percent say they expect the economy to stay the same or get worse in the next year."

 

The Poll results:

 

Economy will get better: 33%

Economy will get worse: 23%

Economy will stay about the same: 43%

 

So it is true that 66% say same or worse... but it is also true that 76% say it will be better or the same... So the mood of the polled is actually better on the economy than the way it is stated.

 

When you take into account that the economy is in worse shape than it has been since Nixon left office, that 43% who say it will remain the same is hardly a positive.

[nickydog]

A disaster in Nov. for the democrats is all well and good, but Republicans then need to start concentrating on putting forward some strong leaders to head off Obama in 2012.

[Argyle58]

A disaster in Nov. for the democrats is all well and good, but Republicans then need to start concentrating on putting forward some strong leaders to head off Obama in 2012.

 

As well as a strong legislative agenda.

[Valin]

A disaster in Nov. for the democrats is all well and good, but Republicans then need to start concentrating on putting forward some strong leaders to head off Obama in 2012.

 

As well as a strong legislative agenda.

 

 

Could not agree more! I would also say I hope they learned their lesson from the 06 & 08 elections.

 

Now for some good news, and some of what needs to be done. 45 minutes, well worth the time spent.

 

[clearvision]

I hate the way the media uses polls and I wondered about the wording of York's statements so I went and found the original poll results. All though not the main theme of the article, this is the type of bias that ruins all these types of reports for me:

 

"The troubled economy, of course, is the most important issue, and 66 percent say they expect the economy to stay the same or get worse in the next year."

 

The Poll results:

 

Economy will get better: 33%

Economy will get worse: 23%

Economy will stay about the same: 43%

 

So it is true that 66% say same or worse... but it is also true that 76% say it will be better or the same... So the mood of the polled is actually better on the economy than the way it is stated.

 

When you take into account that the economy is in worse shape than it has been since Nixon left office, that 43% who say it will remain the same is hardly a positive.

I agree. I really was not meaning to comment on the state of the economy but more on how poll data gets twisted and what to watch for. The way the statement was worded was a red flag for me. The results could have been 60% same, 6% worse, 34%better and the author could still say 66% same/worse, while leaving out the much higher view in the opposite direction. Watch out for poll summaries that bias by including the middle ground without telling you what it is.