Out with the Old

[Valin]

Weekly Standard:

Matthew Continetti
5/31/10

As far as I can tell, Sean Duffy is the only world-champion lumberjack and reality television star running for Congress this year. Duffy is the Republican candidate in Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District. A district attorney, he’s married to another television star, Rachel Campos-Duffy. They met on the set of MTV’s The Real World: Road Rules All Stars in 1998. They have six children. Duffy’s a member of the House Republicans’ “Young Guns” recruitment program and has earned Sarah Palin’s endorsement. But most important, his candidacy—and the prospect of a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives—led 20-term incumbent Democrat David Obey to announce his retirement. The seat is open, and Duffy has a strong chance to win it.

The first thing that strikes you about Duffy is his age. At 38, he wasn’t even born when Obey entered Congress. Duffy is 33 years younger than Obey. He could be the son of the man he hopes to replace. Duffy and Obey grew up during different times. They were influenced by different events. They view the world through different lenses, and they have different priorities. “My oldest child is 10, my youngest is two months old,” Duffy says. “I have a unique concern about the America my children are going to inherit. Is it going to be as great as the America I inherited?”

Duffy is not alone. Congress is in the midst of the most significant generational shift since 1974. The congressmen and senators who came of age during the Nixon years, mainly liberal Democrats shaped by Vietnam and Watergate, are on the way out. A bunch of youngsters, mainly conservative Republicans shaped by 9/11 and the financial crisis, is on the way in. It’s a trend that will influence our politics for decades.

And it’s been a long time coming. The average age of senators declined between 1955 and 1981, and the average age of representatives reached a low of 47 in 1983. But these averages have been increasing, in fits and starts, ever since. There was a brief dip in 1995 with the Republican Revolution, but the trend quickly resumed. In 1995, the average age of representatives was 51. The average age of senators was 58. Now the averages are 57 and 63.

Expect those numbers to be much lower when the 112th Congress convenes next January. Congress will look more like Aaron Schock, the 29-year-old Republican congressman from Illinois’s 18th Congressional District, and a lot less like Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who turns 93 this November.

The change is obvious when you look at recent primaries, special elections, and retirements. In early May, Utah Republicans ditched the 76-year-old incumbent senator, Robert Bennett. Two 40-somethings are battling to replace him. (Representative Jason Chaffetz, 43, is already thinking about challenging the 76-year-old Orrin Hatch in 2012.)

In Kentucky, 47-year-old Rand Paul is running to replace the 78-year-old Jim Bunning. In Arizona, former representative J.D. Hayworth, 51, is challenging John McCain, 73. In Massachusetts in January, 50-year-old Republican Scott Brown replaced the late Senator Edward Kennedy, who died at 77.

In Hawaii, 71-year-old Democratic representative Neil Abercrombie is retiring to run for governor. It’s likely that Republican Charles Djou, 39, will replace him. In North Dakota, 53-year-old Republican governor John Hoeven is the frontrunner to replace Democratic senator Byron Dorgan, who is retiring at 68. Former congressman Rob Portman, 54, is running for the seat of outgoing Ohio senator George Voinovich, 73.

Who are the most dynamic and interesting leaders in the Republican party today? Individuals like Bobby Jindal (38), Marco Rubio (39), and Paul Ryan (40). At 46, Sarah Palin and Eric Cantor are the adults of this group. Mitt Romney, 63, is an elder statesman.

A similar, if less pronounced transition is taking place inside the Democratic party. Last week, 48-year-old Mark Critz won a special election to replace the late Representative John Murtha, who died at 77. In Pennsylvania, 58-year-old Joe Sestak defeated 80-year-old incumbent senator Arlen Specter. (This is after Specter left the Republican party in order to avoid a primary loss to 48-year-old Pat Toomey.) On May 11, 46-year-old Mike Oliverio defeated 14-term incumbent Alan Mollohan, who is 67. An entire cohort of septuagenarians is being washed away before our eyes.

Continue