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Valin

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Power Line

Steven Hayward

April 19, 2024

Next Monday, April 22, is Earth Day. Again. But on Monday I’ll be “returning to the scene of the crime,” in a manner of speaking, to revisit the annual Earth Day project I carried on for nearly 20 years starting way back in 1994: the Index of Leading Environmental Indicators.

Back when I started doing that annual report, The Economist magazine suggested that claiming the environment is a cause for optimism is “beyond the pale of respectable discourse.” So naturally I pointed out just how most environmental conditions in the U.S. were rapidly improving—but the media and certainly doom-and-gloom environmental groups would never tell you this.

(Snip)

So on Monday morning at 10 am eastern time, the American Enterprise Institute is hosting me and Roger Pielke Jr. to review this story, and you can watch online if you register ahead of time. Or if you are busy working you’ll be able to take it in on tape delay. Sign up at the link.

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May 11, 2009

Peter Robinson interviews Steven Hayward who challenges the established narrative of environmentalism, beginning with the notion that the earth is fragile and that we have little time to save it from environmental catastrophe. He deconstructs the case for global warming (including cap and trade plans to limit greenhouse gas emissions and the new EPA endangerment finding on CO2 ) and speaks to the challenges faced by poor countries as they seek to modernize and at the same time reduce the pollution that has historically accompanied modernization. Finally, he offers his insights into the deep structure of environmentalism that substitutes a human apocalypse for a religious one.

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Chernobyl was mentioned in the above video.

An Evening with Michael Crichton
November 15, 2005

(Snip)

And in the course of my preparation for this book, I rather casually reviewed what had happened at Chernobyl, because I regard Chernobyl as the largest manmade disaster that I knew about. What I discovered stunned me. Chernobyl was a tragic event, but nothing remotely close to the global catastrophe that I was imagining. About 50 people had died in Chernobyl, roughly the number of Americans that die every day in traffic accidents. I don’t mean to be gruesome, but it was a setback for me. You can’t write a novel about a global disaster in which only 50 people die.

I was undaunted. I began to research other kinds of disasters that might fulfill my novelistic requirements, and that’s when I began to realize how big our planet really is and how resilient its systems ordinarily seem to be. Even though I wanted to create a fictional catastrophe of global proportions, I found it hard to come up with a credible example. I couldn’t actually come up with anything that I would believe, so in the end, I set the book aside and wrote something else.

But the shock that I had experienced reverberated in me for a while, because what I’d been led to believe about Chernobyl was not merely wrong. It was astonishingly wrong. Let’s review that for a minute.

image005.jpg

These are the low estimates of immediate Chernobyl deaths as a consequence of the actual incident, and you see here the UPI in 1986, at the time of the disaster, predicted that there would be 2,000 immediate deaths. The New York Post thought there would be 16,000. The Canadian Broadcasting Company in ’91 thought there would be that many, and you see the BBC and The New York Times in 2002 predicting at the low end 15,000 deaths. Their estimates were 15,000 to 30,000 deaths.

Now, there was a UN commission in 2000 that suggested that the catastrophe was nowhere near that proportion, and as you can see, the next UN commission in 2005 doesn’t really show up on the graph, because the total numbers are 56.

Now, to report that 15,000 to 30,000 people are dead when the actual number is 56 represents a very large error.

To get some idea of just how big, let’s imagine that we lined all the victims up in a row. If 56 people are each represented by one foot of space, then that’s probably the distance from me to about the second table here, something like that. Fifteen thousand people is three miles away. It seems difficult to make a mistake of that scale.

image006.jpg

But of course, you’re probably thinking, we’re talking about radiation. What about long-term consequences? Unfortunately for the media, their reports are even less accurate here. Here you see CNN in 1996 was predicting future Chernobyl-related illness and death in a large swath that would go from Sweden to the Baltic to the Black Sea. It estimated three and a half million. The BBC, much more conservatively, estimated 50,000. Agence Press thought half a million. The Ukrainian Victim’s Group in 2002 estimated 150,000. The UN commission in 2005 decided that there would be about 4,000. That’s the number of Americans who die of adverse drug reactions in this country every six weeks. Again, a huge error.

(Snip)

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Bold Me

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Scheduled for Apr 22, 2024 #earthday #aei #livestream

For years, American environmentalists held a largely pessimistic outlook on our planet’s future. But recently, the environmental movement has seen significant changes. Join Steven F. Hayward—a resident scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, who previously authored an AEI book on favorable environmental trends—for a presentation on how the trend data demonstrate the momentum of environmental progress in the US and around the world.

Afterward, join Dr. Hayward and AEI’s Roger Pielke Jr. as they discuss environmental trends and the exceptional case of climate change, which overshadows almost every other environmental issue. Dr. Hayward and Dr. Pielke will explore what we have learned about the environment, what important information gaps remain, and lessons for future policy choices.

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GEOL 101 lectures from CWU's Discovery Hall by Nick Zentner during Winter Quarter, 2021.

May 16, 2020 ELLENSBURG

CWU's Nick Zentner from his home in Ellensburg, Washington on Saturday, May 16, 2020 during the global coronavirus pandemic. Milankovitch Cycles, climate history, ice cores, deep sea sediment cores, astronomy, etc.

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If you are interested in Geology, give Nick a shot. Very Good Communicator on the subject.

 

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Watching Now.

Apr. 22 2024

For years, American environmentalists held a largely pessimistic outlook on our planet’s future. But recently, the environmental movement has seen significant changes. Join Steven F. Hayward—a resident scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, who previously authored an AEI book on favorable environmental trends—for a presentation on how the trend data demonstrate the momentum of environmental progress in the US and around the world.

Afterward, join Dr. Hayward and AEI’s Roger Pielke Jr. as they discuss environmental trends and the exceptional case of climate change, which overshadows almost every other environmental issue. Dr. Hayward and Dr. Pielke will explore what we have learned about the environment, what important information gaps remain, and lessons for future policy choices.

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New Deadline to Save the World--2 Years

I am mildly surprised that he didn't say that we have until November 5, 2024, to save the world. 

 

That is, after all, what he really means. Climate change ideology has everything to do with controlling money and power and nothing to do with actually saving the planet from disaster. 

Simon Steiell, who currently is the United Nations Executive Climate Secretary, has yet another dire warning that the planet is burning, that all life on earth is about to evaporate, and that cows are farting too much for anything to survive the apocalypse. :snip:

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1 hour ago, Valin said:

I wonder if in 2026 he will say OOPS!

Somehow  doubt it.

Climate Dementia

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4 hours ago, Valin said:

I wonder if in 2026 he will say OOPS!

Somehow  doubt it.

 

2 hours ago, Geee said:

Climate Dementia

Being on The Left means  Never Having To Say You're Sorry...or Wrong. It goes into the History Black Hole.

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