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The Future of War


Geee

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American Greatness

If WWIII is not, as I argue, possible in our time, then what is the future of war?

Critics of my stance on WWIII and my opposition to joining the modern American military fall broadly into two camps. The first accuses me of failing to address relevant facts about modern war. The other holds that I lack a positive vision for what is possible. I do not, in this latter view, explain what I think should be done.

To address the first school of criticism, just because I think WWIII is not possible does not mean I think war is impossible. War will continue to be an endemic part of human life. I hold, however, that large-scale conventional war between great powers is not going to be a feature of America’s coming conflicts.

 

Insurgencies, proxy wars, civil wars, tribal conflicts, and ideological mass slaughter represent the future of armed conflict in the 21st century—not grand set-piece battles like Normandy or the Somme.

Put more simply, we are not going to see tank battles on the scale of Kursk in 1943 in the 21st century. I do not see how any semi-rational modern nuclear-armed state could fight such a battle with another great power. If such a battle were fought between nuclear-armed states, it would be utterly meaningless and a sign of profound cognitive delusion at political, strategic, operational, and tactical levels.

Even if such a conventional conflict were fought, it could not bear meaningful strategic fruit. Any state that possesses nuclear weapons owns a trump card that ultimately serves as a backstop against any existential conventional threat.

Conventional war in the 21st century so far has been very limited. The best example of such a conflict is between Ukraine and Russia. But that war is between a nuclear-armed power and a non-nuclear-armed power. That is the only reason this conflict is even possible. If Ukraine had nuclear warheads, it would not be in a conventional conflict with the Russians. Indeed, one of the causes of the Russo-Ukraine War is Putin’s desire to keep NATO (and her nuclear warheads) out of Russia’s vicinity.:snip:

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18 minutes ago, Geee said:
American Greatness

If WWIII is not, as I argue, possible in our time, then what is the future of war?

A couple of thoughts, in no particular order.

1. A platoon if Army/Marines has more fire power today (actually the last 50-60 years) than a Company in WWII.

2. The Best Place To Defend Long Beach is Okinawa. 

3 "America doesn’t need more aircraft carriers, stealth bombers, or main battle tanks. Instead of stopping Chinese battle troops from landing in Long Beach, we need to figure out how to keep Chinese fentanyl out of American cities. Instead of protecting our borders from waves of stealth bombers, we need to be far more concerned with the stream of illegal migrants who daily invade our soil."

Actually We Do Need More. Simple reason being We Are A Trading Nation. Always Have Been. We have Interests/priorities outside the continental US. The Immigration and Fentanyl problem is not a Military/War problem its a Political/Cultural problem.  We  have one ideology that controls one Political Party that sees this has a good thing. More on this if you want.

4. I can sum up this fine article (and it is) in one word...Isolationism. This is something we've seen growing for some time. "The Endless Wars" (recently) Tucker Carlson vs Ben Shapiro. This is a big part of Donald Trump's (populist) support.

5. He is right (I believe) that large scale industrial strength WWII style war is (probably) going away. Reason being Modern (4-5-6 generation) weapons are to powerful  and EXPENSIVE. (as always But..I..Could..Be..Wrong! Best have it and not need it than need it and not have it)

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  • 2 months later...
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4. I can sum up this fine article (and it is) in one word...Isolationism. This is something we've seen growing for some time. "The Endless Wars" (recently) Tucker Carlson vs Ben Shapiro. This is a big part oonald Trump's (populist) support.

 

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks to Ben Shapiro about bridging divides on the right; his concern over internal rifts; his attempts to reconcile differences with Tucker Carlson; how Tucker Carlson has continued to spread lies about him; the harm of attributing corrupt motives to your adversaries; the importance of engaging in genuine debate rather than resorting to ad hominem attacks; and much more.

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