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Why Climate Models Don’t Work


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Power Line

John Hinderaker

November 12, 2022

Climate alarmism is not based on observation, it is based on predictions generated by climate models. This article by computer modeler Greg Chapman at Watts Up With That is a good primer on why those models are inherently unreliable, and in fact have been shown to be wrong:

Quote

The purpose of this article is to explain to the non-expert, how climate models work, rather than a focus on the issues underlying the actual climate science, since the models are the primary ‘evidence’ used by those claiming a climate crisis. The first problem, of course, is no model forecast is evidence of anything. It’s just a forecast, so it’s important to understand how the forecasts are made, the assumptions behind them and their reliability.

You really need to read the whole thing, but this is a summary of the chief points:

In summary:

* Climate models can’t be validated on initiatialisation due to lack of data and a chaotic initial state.

* Model resolutions are too low to represent many climate factors.

* Many of the forcing factors are parameterised as they can’t be calculated by the models.

* Uncertainties in the parameterisation process mean that there is no unique solution to the history matching.

* Numerical dispersion beyond the history matching phase results in a large divergence in the models.

* The IPCC refuses to discard models that don’t match the observed data in the prediction phase – which is almost all of them.

(Snip)

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