After last night

[Valin]

Power Line

Scott Johnson

Nov. 9 2020

I offer just a few comments — ranging from personal self-evaluation to national results to the local Minnesota scene — on the fiasco this time. Here are my thoughts more or less in the order they occur to me with the results of a few races still in doubt:

• I was pessimistic as usual, but I prefer to think of my pessimism as the higher realism.

• I expected the worst and hoped for the best, but I had no ken that the elections could have played out as poorly for Republicans as they have.

• I regret having served up optimistic “tea leaves” over the past week. I was deluded. I was misled most of all by the polls served up by Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group. They were not reliable indicators of what was to come. I think Cahaly was in good company in his errors, but I thought his recent record distinguished him from the pack. He has reverted to the professional polling norm, if not worse. I would like to know why.

• What happened to the red wave? It was buried in an open grave. It began and ended in Florida. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had a great night romping over Charlie Crist, an opponent who has distinguished himself by losing statewide races as a Republican, an independent, and a Democrat. Andrew Stiles gives him his due in the Free Beacon column “Charlie Crist Defends Historic Triple Crown Title.”

• I may be mistaken, but I don’t think Donald Trump is the cure for what ails the Republican Party.

(Snip)

Republicans didn’t win a single sleeper Senate race. They weren’t even close. Don Bolduc, Joe O’Dea, and Tiffany Smiley went down to defeat by wide margins in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington.

• It took the intervention of big bucks supplied by Cocaine Mitch to raise up J.D. Vance after the Ohio Republican primary. Yet President Trump chooses to aim is rhetorical guns on Cocaine Mitch. I believe Trump himself kept his financial powder dry in Ohio.

(Snip)

• A concluding personal note. I try to write on the elections at least as much as an analyst as a cheerleader. Despite my best efforts, I found that the easiest person to fool was myself.

 

[Valin]

Did GOP optimism outrun reality?

Byron York, Chief Political Correspondent |

November 09, 2022 12:50 AM

DID GOP OPTIMISM OUTRUN REALITY? Even as votes continue to be counted, the big picture that is emerging from midterm results around the country is that, as predicted, it appears Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives. That's a big deal. Even if the GOP controls only one chamber of Congress, President Joe Biden's legislative agenda is dead. A Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), should McCarthy realize his ambition to run the House, is not going to help the president pass any big legislative priority. That will be a momentous change in Washington.

But in the final days and weeks of the campaign, Republicans began to hope for more. An optimism grew among GOP insiders that the party could capture the Senate, as well. First, they began to believe that Republicans could hold on to the toss-up seats they currently control — Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The first three they felt very confident about, and the final one, Pennsylvania, they knew would be difficult. But as time went by, especially after Democrat John Fetterman's poor performance in the Oct. 25 debate with Republican Mehmet Oz, GOP strategists began to feel increasingly confident about winning Pennsylvania, too.

(Snip)

There were some bright spots for Republicans. The brightest was the state of Florida, in which Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) easily won reelection, as did GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis, in particular, emerged from election night in a powerful position not only to press forward with his agenda in the state but to enter the 2024 Republican presidential primary race if he chooses.

But overall, the reality of the 2022 midterm elections fell short of the optimistic scenarios Republicans had increasingly come to embrace. Their optimism leaked into the general conversation about the elections, as well, even though many polls showed several contests as too close to call. Fairly early on Tuesday night, MSNBC's Chris Hayes described what he called "a narrative that became increasingly untethered from the data" — in other words, a media narrative that leaned increasingly toward predictions of a Republican wave when underlying polls did not necessarily support that conclusion. In the end, for many Republicans, that narrative might have been driven more by hope than anything els

[Valin]

HuffPo

The Red Whimper And 4 Other Takeaways From Election Night

The “red wave” never materialized for Republicans as Donald Trump-endorsed candidates floundered across the country.

Kevin Robillard, Igor Bobic, and Liz Skalka

Nov 9, 2022, 02:24 AM EST

A single number can sum up how election night has gone for Democrats: Two.

That’s how many of the party’s incumbents at the House, Senate or gubernatorial levels had lost reelection as of early Wednesday morning. Rep. Elaine Luria, a moderate who represents military-heavy Virginia Beach, Virginia, had fallen to a state Republican lawmaker. And scandal-plagued Rep. Tom Malinowski had lost in New Jersey.

The anticipated red wave of 2022 looks more like the wake generated by a medium-sized fishing boat.

Right now the House still looks likely to enter GOP control, which would be enough for the party to claim victory. But its majority could be small enough that GOP leader Kevin McCarthy would struggle to pass almost any legislation. It remains possible Republicans will not defeat a single Democratic Senate or gubernatorial incumbent and that Democrats could actually add seats in the Senate.

(Snip)

[Valin]

Daily Wire

Republican ‘Red Wave’ Stops At Florida As Initial Midterm Tallies Leave House, Senate Majorities In Question

Greg Wilson

Nov 9, 2022 

The Republican red wave swept over Florida and skipped most of the rest of the nation Tuesday, leaving the GOP clinging to hopes of a small majority in the House and control of the Senate in question.

Despite polls that had Republicans hoping to capture as many as 35 seats, as the votes came in, it became clear that voters’ displeasure with President Joe Biden would not translate into any sort of GOP mandate.

“Definitely not a Republican wave, that’s for darn sure,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said as the results came in.

Several key Senate seats Republicans hoped to flip, including in New Hampshire and Washington went to incumbent Democrats. Republican J.D. Vance won a convincing decision over Rep. Tim Ryan, but that was a seat the GOP had to win because it was vacated by retiring Republican Rob Portman.

Quote

Ben Shapiro

@benshapiro

·Follow

From red wave to red wedding

11:57 PM · Nov 8, 2022

(Snip)

 

[Geee]

You have to believe one of two things:

!. Massive voter fraud. Although there always is some fraud - in every state?

2. That half this country is either ill-informed, brain washed, just plain ignorant or a bit of all three. 

[Valin]

4 minutes ago, Geee said:

You have to believe one of two things:

!. Massive voter fraud. Although there always is some fraud - in every state?

2. That half this country is either ill-informed, brain washed, just plain ignorant or a bit of all three. 

There is A 3rd. The Democratic Party run a better campaign than the Republican Party. What I mean is I got Two E Mails from MNGOP Nothing from any of the other State wide campaigns. Evey week I got a flier in my mail box from the DFL...NOTHING from MNGOP.  Call me crazy but it seems to me spending some time/money campaigning in places where most of  the Voters Live, MIGHT BE a good idea. (Example) Here in Mn. we handily won Otter Tail county (Pop. 49,000). Once again I look at the Red/Blue election map. Most of the country is Red, Except where Most of The People/Voters Live, that's BLUE.

 

Of course it never hurts to have All the corporate media on your side, singing your praises. 

[Valin]

TOS Let The Red Wedding Begin.

[Geee]

4 minutes ago, Valin said:

There is A 3rd. The Democratic Party run a better campaign than the Republican Party. What I mean is I got Two E Mails from MNGOP Nothing from any of the other State wide campaigns. Evey week I got a flier in my mail box from the DFL...NOTHING from MNGOP.  Call me crazy but it seems to me spending some time/money campaigning in places where most of  the Voters Live, MIGHT BE a good idea. (Example) Here in Mn. we handily won Otter Tail county (Pop. 49,000). Once again I look at the Red/Blue election map. Most of the country is Red, Except where Most of The People/Voters Live, that's BLUE.

 

Of course it never hurts to have All the corporate media on your side, singing your praises. 

[Valin]

We probably would not be feeling depressed if it were not  ha we were expecting A Red Wave if not a Red Tsunami. Its like expecting a Home Run and  get a base hit. 

[Valin]

1 hour ago, Valin said:

Power Line

Scott Johnson

Nov. 9 2020

I offer just a few comments — ranging from personal self-evaluation to national results to the local Minnesota scene — on the fiasco this time. Here are my thoughts more or less in the order they occur to me with the results of a few races still in doubt:

• I was pessimistic as usual, but I prefer to think of my pessimism as the higher realism.

• I expected the worst and hoped for the best, but I had no ken that the elections could have played out as poorly for Republicans as they have.

• I regret having served up optimistic “tea leaves” over the past week. I was deluded. I was misled most of all by the polls served up by Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group. They were not reliable indicators of what was to come. I think Cahaly was in good company in his errors, but I thought his recent record distinguished him from the pack. He has reverted to the professional polling norm, if not worse. I would like to know why.

• What happened to the red wave? It was buried in an open grave. It began and ended in Florida. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had a great night romping over Charlie Crist, an opponent who has distinguished himself by losing statewide races as a Republican, an independent, and a Democrat. Andrew Stiles gives him his due in the Free Beacon column “Charlie Crist Defends Historic Triple Crown Title.”

• I may be mistaken, but I don’t think Donald Trump is the cure for what ails the Republican Party.

(Snip)

Republicans didn’t win a single sleeper Senate race. They weren’t even close. Don Bolduc, Joe O’Dea, and Tiffany Smiley went down to defeat by wide margins in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington.

• It took the intervention of big bucks supplied by Cocaine Mitch to raise up J.D. Vance after the Ohio Republican primary. Yet President Trump chooses to aim is rhetorical guns on Cocaine Mitch. I believe Trump himself kept his financial powder dry in Ohio.

(Snip)

• A concluding personal note. I try to write on the elections at least as much as an analyst as a cheerleader. Despite my best efforts, I found that the easiest person to fool was myself.

 

Comment

Juan A. Cerveza

Funny, no riots with the Republican disappointment.

[Geee]

I'm Sick of Losing, I Hope You Are Too

While votes are still being counted, and there could be a few, rare bright spots left for Republicans, one thing is clear: The red wave didn’t materialize in 2022.

 

Ironically, some accused me of being too conservative when I predicted the GOP only getting to 235 seats in the House. Now, the Republican Party might end up with a majority far less than that. The Senate is pretty much a wasteland as well, with Mehmet Oz, despite a strong push down the stretch, not being able to overcome his unfavorables in Pennsylvania. Don Bolduc got trounced in New Hampshire, Georgia is headed to a runoff, and Masters is an underdog as counting continues in Arizona.

Far from the optimism of suggesting that 54 senate seats were on the table, my “low” prediction of winning 51 seats would actually be a minor miracle for Republicans now. I whiffed, not because I was too conservative, but because I was too bullish. That’s an outcome that seemed improbable just a day ago.

What happened on Tuesday can’t be left to lie. There has to be a reckoning, and it’s going to be uncomfortable and challenge some deeply-held priors. Republicans can’t keep running the same play over and over, hoping that the next time things will be different. No one should escape accountability.

 

 

[Geee]

Challenges to a McCarthy Speakership Are Mounting

As Americans continue to wait for full election results and whether Republicans actually take a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, challenges to Leader Kevin McCarthy are mounting after a red wave failed to show up Tuesday night. 

Even if Republicans win the House by one or two seats, which hasn't happened yet, McCarthy is set to have an uphill climb through a logistical minefield. 

[Geee]

Republican Voters Deserve Answers and Accountability

There's no way to sugarcoat it — Republicans got bamboozled in the midterms. All the polls that we reported showing Republican candidates surging in the final weeks of their campaigns, the race ratings from the Cook Political Report, and the overconfident statements from GOP leaders were all significantly overly optimistic about what we all watched play out on Tuesday night. :snip:

[Geee]

Pollsters wrong again: A look at what polls predicted vs what happened on Election Day

 

Pollsters predicted a large red wave occurring during the 2022 midterm elections that failed to materialize by Wednesday morning, proving that once again pollsters can be inaccurate.

This year, Democrats have fared better than polling expected. Although Republicans remain poised to take control of the House of Representatives, the Senate is still too close to call and may not be determined until after the Georgia run-off election next month.

[Valin]

It Could Have Been Worse

John Hinderaker

November 9, 2022

Just kidding. Out of the range of possible outcomes, what we saw last night was about as bad as it could be. The GOP’s failure to make progress stunned everyone, not least the Democrats.

What happened?

(Snip)

* Abortion. While Dobbs was plainly right as a matter of constitutional law, Justice Alito and his colleagues probably cost Republicans control of Congress. I thought the Democrats were wasting their money when they spent countless millions over the summer, pounding Republicans on abortion. The conventional wisdom, which I shared, was that the issue would likely help to drive turnout, but wouldn’t win over any undecided or middle of the road voters. But driving turnout was decisive: liberals trooped to the polls, while in many areas Republican turnout was not what it should have been.

* Donald Trump. I thought the Democrats’ endless yammering about “our democracy” and “fascism” was incredibly stupid, born of desperation, and would be ignored by voters. I was partly right: those themes were stupid, and they were born of desperation. But it turned out that they were not ineffective. To cite just one example, a young woman I know posted a photo of herself at the polls on Instagram, with the text, “I’m voting against fascism.”

(Snip)

An off-year election is normally a referendum on the president, which is why the out-party nearly always gains. When the Democrats tried to make this year’s election a referendum on Donald Trump, I thought they were crazy. Trump is not an office-holder, nor was he on the ballot. How could that possibly work? Well, it did work, and Trump, with his inimitable bad judgment, collaborated fully with the Democrats in putting himself front and center, with disastrous results.

The major exception to last night’s gloom was Florida, where Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio both won crushing victories. Why was that? At least part of the explanation is that Florida was one state where the Democrats couldn’t pretend Trump was on the ballot. Ron DeSantis was on the ballot.

(Snip)

_________________________________________

Has the GOP Primary Race started? I suspect it has.

IMO In Trump vs DeSantis, Trump Took A Big Hit Last Night, and DeSantis became The Front Runner.

Thee was a comment at TOS

Trump is done. Valin: I  Don't Know About That!

Valin Big Point Trump’s candidates could not beat the early, mail-in voting because they were all smeared in the first months of the campaign. Their opponents refused to debate. Trump did not sufficiently fund his own endorsed candidates. McConnell funded Trump’s senate candidates with 10x the money Trump spent, despite Trump’s PAC having raised more than McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund. So, do not blame McConnel.

This allowed the Dems to smear our candidates early and cement those early, mail-in votes, ensuring their victory.

DeSantis turned Florida more red than ever by actually governing as a conservative, taking actions to ensure integrity and leading the nation during the pandemic.

Trump needs to retire his ego and enjoy his billions and Melania.

I fear Trump will not. He is the jilted lover who wants revenge. If Trump gets the nomination, he loses in 2024. If Trump loses the nomination, he will undermine our nominee causing us to lose 2024.

[Valin]

Welcome To The Democratic Peoples Republic of Minnesota

[Valin]

29 minutes ago, Valin said:

Welcome To The Democratic Peoples Republic of Minnesota

 

[Geee]

Republicans should have won the Senate easily, but they nominated really bad candidates

[Valin]

Quote

Rev. Dr. Jacqui Lewis

@RevJacquiLewis

 

I don’t want to hear any criticism about what Black voters did or didn’t do when the majority of white voters chose fascism.

 

 

12:16 AM · Nov 10, 2022

 

I see his a room for hope. 14% Black vote 38% Hispanic Vote.

[Geee]

Arizona, Nevada Won’t Be Done Counting Ballots Until Week After Elections, Officials Say

[Geee]

1

[Geee]

GOP Made Massive, Double-Digit Gains Among Young Black, Hispanic Voters: POLL