Al-Qaida's Radical Ideas Are Making A Comeback. Here's Why

[Valin]

Middle East Forum

Cynthia Farahat
The Daily Caller
August 13, 2022

While absolutely necessary, the U.S. assassination of al-Qaida's leader Ayman al-Zawahiri will no doubt only contribute further to the resurgence of al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS), rather than weaken them. These groups will likely coalesce into one entity under the leadership of the Taliban.

In the absence of a comprehensive strategy to counter the ideological source of these factions, the names will simply continue to change as their brutality evolves.

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Groups such as al-Qaida, ISIS, Boko Haram, and the Taliban, are an actualization of a long ideological program of the Muslim Brotherhood controlled, al-Azhar University in Cairo. While al-Azhar is often glorified as "a widely respected and leading institutional authority on moderate Islamic thought," it is, in fact, the center for radical ideology.

For starters, Al-Azhar's dawam al-jihad (permanence of jihad) philosophy is the umbrella ideology cloaking terror groups' doctrine of jihadism, which the Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi criticized during one of his speeches in 2018. Al-Azhar University provides jihadists with ideological authority and religious immunity by legitimizing their jihadist manifestos as PhD dissertations and master's degree theses.

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he most recent example of this is the targeting of moderate Muslim author and commentator Ibrahim Issa. Last February al-Azhar scholar Ahmed Karima issued a fatwa excommunicating Issa from Islam over a minor religious disagreement. This resulted in al-Qaida reciprocating by ordering Issa's assassination.

While most experts focus on the logistical aspects of terrorism operations they should also concentrate on the damaging theological support for these groups — al-Azhar University and their Muslim Brotherhood handlers – who are responsible for founding the vast majority of Sunni terrorist groups. Otherwise, the assassination of al-Zawahiri and similarly, Israel's takedown of the top brass of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (an off-shoot of Muslim Brotherhood), will simply be an exercise in futility.

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Why I am NOT a Libertarian

[Valin]

And

Aug 19, 2022 In this episode, Bill interviews John Batchelor, host of CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor. Bill has been a regular on John's radio show for more than a decade and considers him a mentor and friend. They discuss the Long War and how September 11, 2001 shaped both of their careers.

[Valin]

Meanwhile....

China And Russia Now Working With Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan One Year After U.S. Withdrawal

[Valin]

OTOH

“Dissolve al-Qaida”: The Advice of Abu Mariya al-Qahtani

Cole Bunzel

August 24, 2022

Last week, Abu Mariya al-Qahtani, a senior leader in Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), delivered a controversial message on his Telegram channel. The time had come, he wrote, for al-Qaida’s branches to shut the organization down. After the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri on July 31, 2022, and with the question of succession complicated by the leading candidate’s presence in Iran, this was the best path forward. He urged the affiliates to consider an alternative model of jihadism, one that embraces cooperation with regional states as part of a strategy of confronting “the Iranian project” in the Middle East.

The advice, or nasiha, was not received well in al-Qaida circles. Several critics of the nasiha wrote at length against it, castigating its author as an ignoramus and dismissing his arguments as unfounded. Two of these authors purport to be members of al-Qaida. The exchange is worth considering, as Abu Mariya is no stranger to the inner workings of al-Qaida—he belonged to it for more than a decade—and the advice he offered clearly struck a nerve. It may well shed light on the still murky future of the group after al-Zawahiri.

Abu Mariya’s journey

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The end of al-Qaida?

The question raised by Abu Mariya al-Qahtani’s nasiha is of course whether any of the al-Qaida affiliates will take it up. Are they really interested in dissolving al-Qaida and forging relationships with regional states? Judging by the responses reviewed above, the answer appears to be no. For one thing, Abu Mariya is not viewed favorably in al-Qaida circles. He has a reputation for persecuting al-Qaida loyalists in Syria, and some have even accused him of assisting in the assassination of Abu al-Qassam al-Urduni. Then there is the issue of the HTS model’s appeal. Abu Mariya may see exemplary accomplishments in northwest Syria, but his opponents see an enfeebled organization dependent for its survival on treacherous foreign powers.

Yet while the al-Qaida branches are unlikely to embrace Abu Mariya’s proposals, it is also the case that al-Qaida finds itself in a precarious position today. How the organization’s branches will respond to the situation is unclear. Sayf al-‘Adl’s location in Iran is indeed a problem. Only one of the refuters noted above affirmed that he would give bay‘a to al-‘Adl in Iran without hesitation; the others dodged the issue. The relationship with the Taliban also raises uncomfortable issues for al-Qaida. One of al-Zawahiri’s last addresses was an implicit critique of the Taliban for seeking a seat at the United Nations, a body seen by al-Zawahiri as a den of polytheism. There is also the question of how much support the Taliban is willing to offer al-Qaida. The Haqqani network may be unswervingly loyal to the group, but there also appear to be restrictions on its activities in Afghanistan.

Whether al-Qaida will even name a successor to al-Zawahiri remains to be seen. One can imagine a scenario in which the affiliates do not “dissolve” al-Qaida, as Abu Mariya advises, but do allow it to die a quiet death. In Islamic law, the bay‘a is given to an individual, not a group. If no new leader is proposed, and no new bay‘a is given, then that would effectively mean al-Qaida’s end. Such an outcome could potentially free the affiliates to pursue strategies more in line with what Abu Mariya is advocating.

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