Afghanistan: Subverting Is Easier Than Ruling

[Valin]

StrategyPage

April 27, 2022:

In 2021 the Afghan Taliban, with the help of Pakistan, regained control of Afghanistan. Pakistan believed it had achieved a degree of control over Afghanistan they had long sought, with trusted Afghans occupying key positions in the new IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan).

his has not worked out as Pakistan expected, with growing violence inside Afghanistan becoming a major problem for Pakistan and Iran. Currently IEA security forces are confronting Pakistani special operations forces entering eastern and southern provinces to capture or kill TTP (Pakistani Taliban) leaders. The Pakistani troops are supported by artillery and air strikes that often kill Afghan civilians. In the east Iran is moving armor units to the border to confront Afghans guarding heroin smugglers traveling into Iran. The drug smugglers have been a problem for over two decades and long-ago turned the Afghan/Iran border into a combat zone. Since the IEA took power, the violence here has escalated. Throughout Afghanistan there are outbreaks of activity by armed Shia militias and their 1990s Northern Alliance allies, now reassembled as the NRF (National Resistance Front).

This escalating chaos in Afghanistan is responsible for is directly responsible for the 30 percent increase in Islamic terrorism related deaths in Pakistan compared to 2020. So far, 2022 appears headed for twice as many Islamic terrorism deaths in Pakistan. This is not just about what is going on in Afghanistan, some internal problems in Pakistan play a role. This is all about the Pakistani military managing to terrorize or influence enough politicians and political parties to give the military control of the government without a coup. That control is running into trouble because misbehavior by the military is seen as responsible for the mess in Afghanistan.

(Snip)