India-Pakistan: Currencies, Conspiracies and Worse

[Valin]

StrategyPage

April 19, 2022:

India and Russia still haven’t found a way to continue trade because Russia has been cut off from the international banking system and free access to dollars. China has a more powerful (internationally acceptable) currency, its yuan, Because of that Russia can continue trade with China but at less favorable currency exchange rates than before. The change is not so great to make trade unprofitable. India and Pakistan have weaker currencies and would have to accept an even less favorable exchange rate buy or sell from Russia. India also has a problem because Indian firms are currently owed several hundred million dollars for goods sold to Russia and not yet paid for. India and Pakistan want to continue trading but without an adequate substitute for the dollar it is difficult to so at affordable prices. Chinese firms have offered some relief for India but only for items each nation is willing to buy or sell more of using dollars or the slightly less effective yuan to make or receive payment. Sometimes barter deals can be worked out.

Afghanistan

Last year Pakistan got what it wanted in Afghanistan, with the Pakistan controlled Taliban back in charge. This has now worked out as Pakistan expected. Growing violence inside Afghanistan has become a major problem for eastern/southern neighbor Pakistan but much less a problem for Iran and the northern neighbors. This escalating chaos is directly related to the 30 percent increase in Islamic terrorism related deaths in Pakistan compared to 2020. So far, 2022 appears headed for twice as many Islamic terrorism deaths in Pakistan. This is not just about what is going on in Afghanistan, but some closely related activities in Pakistan. During the last few years, the Pakistani military has managed to terrorize or influence enough politicians and political parties to give the military control of the government without a coup. That control is running into trouble because misbehavior by the military is responsible for the mess in Afghanistan, where the Afghan Taliban is now in charge as the IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan). That was made possible by the Pakistani military, which created the Taliban in the mid-1990s. Despite losing power in late 2001, the Taliban once more took over in August 2021. Despite the presence of known Pakistani agents in key government positions of the new Taliban IEA government, there is more anti-Pakistan violence coming from Afghanistan than when the U.S. backed IRA (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) government was in charge. IEA-run Afghanistan is more tolerant of Islamic terrorism than the IRA and tolerates the presence of the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) that seeks to impose a religious dictatorship on Pakistan. The IEA appears to have made a similar deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), or some of the ISIL factions in Afghanistan, because the number of ISIL attacks in Pakistan have increased this year and these attacks are often coming from ISIL factions based across the border in Afghanistan. The Pakistani military apparently underestimated the degree of anti-Pakistan attitudes among IEA leaders and the Afghan population.

Pakistan’s role in the Taliban gaining control of Afghanistan was portrayed by the international community as a criminal act in support of Islamic terrorism as well as protecting the world’s main source of heroin. Foreign nations are slow to recognize the new IEA government. Initially, not even Pakistan did so because being first to recognize the new government would be a further admission of guilt for the role Pakistan has played in making it happen. Pakistan, like several other Islamic nations, has established unofficial diplomatic relations with the IEA via the use of “diplomatic missions” where the people working in these missions do not have diplomatic or any official recognition.

 

(Snip)

[Valin]

May 12 2023

#Pakistan is in hock to the #IMF, the World Bank, #China, and others. Meanwhile, the military watches events closely, with many fearing another #coup.