What is the current status of the 2012 Presidential election?

[Draggingtree]

Flopping Aces:

What is the current status of the 2012 Presidential election? [Reader Post]

By: shawn thompson

 

It is confusing to determine where we are in the Presidential race. Headlines scream out: Obama up by four, Romney and Obama tied in latest poll. Then there are the confusing state poll results. On the same day a poll shows Romney leading in a national poll, a state poll will show Obama pulling away in a “battleground” state.

This article sets forth a model that can be used to accurately describe the current state of the Presidential race and who is likely to win in November.

The first thing that has to be considered is that since there is an incumbent running for reelection, that fact has a major impact on how the race unwinds. A very accurate indicator of how the incumbent will perform on Election Day is how people perceive his performance on the job. People’s perception of his performance is measured by his job approval numbers. Polling companies regularly take polls asking the question, do you approve or disapprove of the performance of the President. Those numbers are expressed as approval/disapproval numbers. Thus, a 52A/48D result would mean 52% of the sample approved of the President’s job performance and 48% disapproved of the President’s job performance.

Not surprisingly, there is a strong correlation (if not cause and effect) between the job approval numbers and the total vote percentage the incumbent receives in November. Historically, the President will receive between 0% and 1% more than his job approval numbers. For the purposes of this model, we will assume the “extra” percentage is 1%. Thus, if the job approval number for the President is 50%, then the President is very likely to receive 51% read more

http://floppingaces.net/2012/08/02/what-is-the-current-status-of-the-2012-presidential-election-reader-post/

[Pepper]

@Draggingtree

 

Thanks for the that article by Shawn Thompson. It is an interesting set of calculations.

[Draggingtree]

@Draggingtree

 

Thanks for the that article by Shawn Thompson. It is an interesting set of calculations.

I thought it was quite interesting myself.

[Pepper]

@Draggingtree

 

IMHO, the 'ahem' community organizers will use every tactic to get every skeleton and the near dead out to vote this november - including abuse of absentee ballot protocol.

 

That's another way of saying it's gonna be razor thin.

[Draggingtree]

100 days is a long time

 

By Victor Davis Hanson, Tribune Media Services,

Victor Davis Hanson

Posted 08/01/2012 at 09:30 am EST

The presidential election is about 100 days away. President Obama and Mitt Romney are roughly even in the various polls, with Obama holding slight leads in the key swing states.

A lot can happen in 100 days or thereabouts. Napoleon, for example, went from ignominious exile at Elba to triumph in Paris to utter defeat at Waterloo. South Korea was lost and then saved by Gen. Matthew Ridgway in about 100 days of winter in 1950 and early 1951. In 1948, supposedly doomed incumbent President Harry Truman went from 17 points down in the polls to a victory margin of 4.5 percentage points on Election Day

What could change the pulse of the election in the next three months? Strangely enough, it may not be the economy. It is now boringly predictable: flat and read more

http://www.tmsfeatur...tnvh-a_20120802

[Draggingtree]

Posted on August 2, 2012 by Paul Mirengoff in 2012 Presidential Election

 

“Bread and peace” model predicts sizeable defeat for Obama

 

In my view, presidential elections are usually pretty easy to predict. You just look at how the economy is doing. When we’re at war or in a major foreign policy crisis, you factor that in. But an incumbent president has to be judged very harshly over his handling of the war or foreign crisis before he will lose in a good economy.

It turns out that there’s a predictive model that formulizes these intuitions. It’s called the Bread and Peace Model. Douglas Hibbs, a retired economics and politics professor, developed it. According to Hibbs, the model nicely explains nearly every post-World War II presidential elections. Only 1996 (when Clinton overperformed) and 2000 (when Gore underperformed) are problematic.

For the Peace side, Hibbs basically counts American fatalities, subject to a proviso discussed below. For the Bread side, he relies on growth of per capita real disposable personal income.

Under Hibbs’ model, President Obama will likely receive only 47.2 to 47.8 of the popular vote. In other words, Romney’s margin will approach read more

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/08/bread-and-peace-model-predicts-sizeable-defeat-for-obama.php

[pollyannaish]

I'm with Mirengoff on this. Not taking it for granted, but not freaked out either.

 

The Clinton/Gore models are pretty easy to explain, IMO. In 1996, the GOP was coming off a period of time when we overplayed our hand. Scrambling after scandal after scandal to the point that when there really was one, we'd used up all of our ammunition. We messed that up.

 

The Gore situation was really different. There were real doubts about GWB because of his lineage both among conservatives and among independents. But Gore is positively unlikable. The public was not, in general, dissatisfied with the policies that came out of that administration. In retrospect, they seem downright conservative when you compare them to Obama's actually. BUT, Gore was just not the same man as Clinton, and in the end his inability to connect sunk him.

 

I continue to believe that GWB won that contest in the debate when Gore stiffly and menacingly walked toward him and Bush stopped, looked at him and nodded a howdy-doo-de and went back to talking. It was a subtle moment, but it showed he couldn't be bullied and was much more likable of the two.

 

I still love that moment.

[pollyannaish]

@Draggingtree

 

IMHO, the 'ahem' community organizers will use every tactic to get every skeleton and the near dead out to vote this november - including abuse of absentee ballot protocol.

 

That's another way of saying it's gonna be razor thin.

 

You may be right. We certainly need to behave as if it will be!

[logicnreason]

Those of us who've long ago made up their mind as to what they will do in November are always heartened by such "statistical reporting" as this article presents.

 

Then we leaven it with a health dose of skepticism knowing that the right has a tried and true historical habit of snatching defeat from the very jaws of victory.

 

I do have one nit to pick with the author. It is a common one in use now by convention....but it drives me crazy every time I see it.

 

Re-read the article and count the number of time the author incorrectly refers to the current regime's "candidate" as DEMOCRATIC rather than correctly as democrat.

Re-read the article and count the number of times a given state or poll is refered to as DEMOCRATIC rather than correctly as democrat.

 

The left and its figureheads are anything but DEMOCRATIC....but they most certainly are democrats.

 

He needs to get it "right" (get it??? Ha Ha!).....or I need to take a chill pill!

[Pepper]

@logicnreason

 

Right, this grammar/sense error occurs often and is sloppy writing.

 

If they would just substitute Socialist it would read better

[logicnreason]

@logicnreason

 

Right, this grammar/sense error occurs often and is sloppy writing.

 

If they would just substitute Socialist it would read better

 

It is amazing how oftern it appears (or is heard) in the msm (including fox). To my mind, it is way more than "sloppy"! I believe it is intentional!!

 

OK....off to get my chill pill!!!!!

[pollyannaish]

@logicnreason can I borrow some of those pills? I should not throw stones because I have a hard time seeing my own errors when I write because I so intensely focus on content and then read back what was in my head, rather than what I actually wrote. But I'm with you! That democrat/democratic thing drives me CRAZY.

 

We'd never call this country of ours Republican. It's a Republic. Same problem, other side of the coin.

[Argyle58]

I am have been doing my best to not get my hopes up about November. I have taken some heart from something I heard on Levin's show in the recent weeks: I know of no one who didn't vote for obama in '08 who will vote for him now. However, everybody knows someone who did vote for him who will not this time.

[logicnreason]

@logicnreason can I borrow some of those pills? I should not throw stones because I have a hard time seeing my own errors when I write because I so intensely focus on content and then read back what was in my head, rather than what I actually wrote. But I'm with you! That democrat/democratic thing drives me CRAZY.

 

We'd never call this country of ours Republican. It's a Republic. Same problem, other side of the coin.

 

Yep....a kind of analogy is to use "Kleenex" instead of "tissue". But this bothers me far less than the "Democratic" party vs "democrat" party.

 

It's just sloppy and insensitive by the msm (including fox).

 

One of my other pep peeves (one of many - but I'm old so I get to have bunches) is to wathch what the msm (including fox) call a "round table discussion" where for 5 minutes four supposedly "intelligent" and "knowledgeable" people attempt to shout over the voices of the others to make their point.

 

Also.....when a "talking head" (oreilly seems the worst followed closely by little krissy mathews) are interviewing a person...and continuously and loudly interupt them during the interview.

 

I usually just shut the show off.....and take another chill pill!!!

[Draggingtree]

@Draggingtree

 

IMHO, the 'ahem' community organizers will use every tactic to get every skeleton and the near dead out to vote this november - including abuse of absentee ballot protocol.

 

That's another way of saying it's gonna be razor thin.

 

You may be right. We certainly need to behave as if it will be!

Romney in a landslide

 

By U-T San Diego Editorial Board

 

 

6 p.m., Aug. 4, 2012

 

 

 

Most polls see the presidential race as a dead heat. But several pundits, such as Dick Morris, say that Barack Obama should be well ahead some 90 days out if the incumbent is to win. Morris points out that historically, 75 percent of undecided voters ultimately fall to the challenger. If that were to happen, Mitt Romney will become the next president of the United States in a landslide.

 

The U-T believes there will be a landslide win for Romney, largely due to the failure of the Obama economic policies and repudiation of his attempt to move the country toward European socialism.

 

In 1980, the race between read more

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/aug/04/romney-in-a-landslide/

[Draggingtree]

Barack Obama Runs On Empty And Toward Defeat

 

Mon, Aug 06 2012 00:00:00 EA17_ISSUESBy DOUGLAS MACKINNONDOUGLAS MACKINNON12655 Beatrice Street

Los Angeles

CA

90066

USA

 

Posted 08/03/2012 05:33 PM ET

 

The social experiment that was Barack Obama's election and presidency is over. Way over.

As one who was born in the heart of Boston and worked the political world of Washington for 20 years, I know quite a few Democrats. Some are family, and many are close friends. Most voted for Obama in 2008. None at this point is inclined to vote for him in 2012.

Why? Because they view him as an abject failure across the board and have decided to put the welfare of their families and themselves before the empty rhetoric of the Obama campaign before it's too late.

Because of my time in Washington and past positions there, I also know and am friends with quite a few journalists. I speak with many on a regular basis, and it's safe to say that the majority of them lean left politically.

That said, in off-the-record conversations with my left-leaning journalistic friends, not one believes Obama is going to win re-election. Not one. While most believe read more

http://news.investors.com/article/620954/201208031733/barack-obama-heads-for-a-loss-in-november.htm?p=full

[Rheo]

Bush spoke of the "Democrat majority" in his 2007 State of the Union Address.[25] The advance copy that was given to members of Congress read "Democratic majority."[6] Democrats again complained about the use of "Democrat" as an adjective in the address. "Like nails on a chalkboard," complained Clinton White House Chief of Staff John Podesta.[6] Some commentators ignored Bush's slur against the newly elected Democratic majority;[26] others "debated" whether Bush was intentionally using the term. Congressional Historian Julian E. Zelizer said "It's hard to disentangle whether that's an intentional slight".[6] Political analyst Charlie Cook doubted it was a deliberate attempt to offend Democrats saying Republicans "have been doing it [using the term] so long that they probably don't even realize they're doing it."[6]

 

Bush later joked about the issue by talking about his leadership of the "Republic Party" the following month.[27] On February 4, 2007, Bush joked in a speech to House Democrats, stating "Now look, my diction isn't all that good. I have been accused of occasionally mangling the English language. And so I appreciate you inviting the head of the Republic Party."[28]

 

[pollyannaish]

@Rheo, Bush is so cool. I really, really miss his sense of humor.

 

In fact, Mr. P and I were discussing Romney and talking about why it was so hard for us to see him as a regular guy. It's not his money, it's not the fact that he doesn't untuck his shirts...He just doesn't have that quick, witty sense of humor.

 

Fortunately, neither does Obama, which makes them even in that regard. But I sure miss that!

[Draggingtree]

August 06, 2012

Hey, Who's Up For A "Obama's Probably Going To Win In A Landslide" Story?

 

—DrewM.

 

"Reporting" deep from the liberal cocoon public fool Michael Tomasky (you remember him from "Saying ObamaCare To the NAACP is Racist" and "Mitt the Wimp"-safe links) takes a look at a closely divide country facing 8+% unemployment, stagnant growth, debt as far as the eye can see and decides, yeah, the country wants 4 more years of this! (as per HQ policy, no links for idiots).

There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

...

So if Pennsylvania is off the boards [for Romney], let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say read more

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/331665.php

[Draggingtree]

Would picking Ryan really help Romney?

August 5, 2012

 

In the last few days, there’s been new talk about Paul Ryan in the who’s-in-who’s-out game of speculation over Mitt Romney’s vice presidential pick. The speculation is striking, because of the four candidates mentioned most often — Ryan, Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, and Tim Pawlenty — Ryan is the choice that would fundamentally change the direction of the Romney campaign. How? By instantly elevating the Ryan budget plan to the top of the Romney agenda. Whether that change would be to Romney’s liking is very much an open question.

There is an intense debate going on inside the Republican party over whether GOP candidates, focusing their campaigns on the economy, should stress job creation or reducing federal spending. The two aren’t mutually exclusive, of course, and snip read more http://washingtonexaminer.com/would-picking-ryan-really-help-romney/article/2504086

 

[Draggingtree]

Obama Super-Pac Video Ad Jumps The Shark

 

August 7, 2012 | Filed under Barack Obama,Douchebag Of The Day,Exploitation | Posted by Lady Liberty

First the Obama Campaign said Romney was a felon, now the Super-Pac which took a million from super-misogynist, Bill Maher, is essentially calling Romney a murderer in their latest web ad. I have to concur with NiceDeb, who calls this the most despicable ad, yet.

http://youtu.be/Nj70XqOxptU

read more http://wizbangblog.com/2012/08/07/obama-super-pac-video-ad-jumps-the-shark/

[Draggingtree]

The Moment All the Doubts About Romney Resurfaced on the Right

 

 

The "Read My Lips" Moment of Betrayal At Least Comes Before the Election This Time

Posted by Erick Erickson (Diary)

Wednesday, August 8th at 1:02PM EDT

Priorities USA was damaging itself and Barack Obama over its mind numbingly insane ad painting Mitt Romney as a killer.

Then the Romney campaign decided to sabotage itself with a mind numbingly bit of spin that may mark the day the Romney campaign died. http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/08/08/the-moment-all-the-doubts-about-romney-resurfaced-on-the-right/

Defending Romney and

[pollyannaish]

Oh good grief. ACK.

 

Really? For all the amazing things this team can do, they make the dumbest mistakes in the world. Really?

 

Oh well. Doesn't change my vote. But still.

[Draggingtree]

Obama Catchphrase of the Week: ‘Trickle-Down Fairy Dust’

 

 

Posted at 12:24 pm on August 9th, 2012 by Bridget Johnson

 

 

 

It seems the Obama campaign catchphrase of the month is “trickle-down tax cut fairy dust.”

 

President Obama has used the term to describe Mitt Romney’s economic policy in five speeches over the past week.

 

“Look, Orlando, we know better. They have tried to sell us this trickle-down tax cut fairy dust before,” Obama said at a Rollins College event in Winter Park, Fla., on Aug. 2. “And guess what — it didn’t work then; it will not work now.”

 

“We know better than this. They have been trying to sell us this trickle-down, tax cut fairy dust before. We’ve seen this before. And guess what — every single time, it doesn’t work,” he said later that day to a crowd at Loudon County High School in Leesburg, Va.

 

“So there were all kinds of different gymnastics being read more

 

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/08/09/obama-catchphrase-of-the-week-trickle-down-fairy-dust/

[Draggingtree]

Paul Ryan, Our Next Vice President

 

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/08/11

Just an hour ago, Mitt Romney announced Representative Paul Ryan as his running-mate. It was one of the wisest decisions Mitt Romney could make, as Paul Ryan is a bona fide TEA Party Commonsense Constitutional Conservative and already has a Budget blueprint that can turn this Titanic around and away from the iceberg known as Obama’s Democrat-enabled Cloward-Piven strategy. A great many Conservatives were understandably disgusted by the Romney-squish pick, and many — myself included — declared a resoluteness not to vote for Romney due to the garbage Romney brings to the table. Ryan does not bring any of that garbage to the table, at all. In fact, Ryan has a long history of fighting to throw that garbage in the garbage heap, where it belongs.

The Ryan selection will energize many of the demoralized TEA Party Commonsense Constitutional Conservatives, who will now be willing to “crawl a mile through broken glass” to vote for Ryan and will man the phones and pound the pavement to GOTV (get out the vote) for the Real Conservative and Real Patriot, Paul Ryan for Vice President. Yes, today, Romney’s chances of winning the Presidency and throwing the Socialist Constitution and Federal Law violator out of the White House has improved greatly.

Also, Romney again vowed to repeal ObamaCare, which

http://truthbeforedishonor.wordpress.com/2012/08/11/paul-ryan-our-next-vice-president/