River Wars II

[Valin]

Information Dissemination.net:

6/15/13

 

While I was about two years premature with Part I, it appears that predictions about Ethiopia's hydro-electric developments on the Blue Nile have panned out with increased rhetoric and the potential for war in the region. Egypt's President has recently stated plainly that he is prepared to defend its water rights, keeping military conflict open as an option.

 

These threats shouldn't be taken too lightly. Reduced down-stream water levels would have severe negative impacts on Egypt's electrical and agriculture production. For years, while Egypt should have been focused inward in developing infrastructure to assist their people, the previous Mubarak regime - with our help through billions in defense support and a series of Bright Star exercises - instead developed the military force structure and tactics to fight a Desert Storm-like scenario. Throw in continued dissatisfaction with the Mursi government, ethnic proxy fighting upstream between the Sudans, and some possible religious undertones, and the potential for a wider conflict is readily apparent.

 

(Snip)

[Valin]

2 from Strategy Page

 

The Threatened Egyptian Dirty War

June 28, 2013:

U.S. diplomats are trying to ease tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egyptian politicians were caught on live microphones discussing ways to stop Ethiopias Nile River dam projects. The options discussed included covert military attacks and supporting rebel groups in other words, the Egyptians were vetting war options. The U.S. has proposed that Ethiopia and Egypt establish a joint working group to examine the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The U.S. has urged Ethiopia to minimize the impact of the dam on downstream nations. The Egyptian leaders were initially embarrassed but they discovered that the Egyptian people rally around the Nile. Despite its own numerous internal troubles, the Egyptian government has continued to threaten Ethiopia should Ethiopia fail to suspend dam construction. Egypt has diplomatic and political power. However, threatening Ethiopia with covert attack invites retaliation by Ethiopia and at the moment Egypt is far less stable than Ethiopia. Egypt lacks the logistical capacity and long-range strike weapons to conduct a sustained military operation. Conceivably they could use the Nile River as a supply line, but barges on the river would be very susceptible to interdiction by air attack, mines or other forms of interdiction. (Austin Bay)

 

(Snip)

 

Egypt Pretends To Be Badass

June 27, 2013:

 

Egypt made headlines recently by threatening to invade Ethiopia if the Ethiopians did not stop building a hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile. This dam would not decrease the flow of water downstream to Egypt (where most of it would be used for irrigation, as has been the case for thousands of years). Egypt ignored that fact. What did bother Egyptian politicians a great deal was that most of the Nile water comes from Ethiopia (via the Blue Nile). The other 20 percent comes from the White Nile that flows through Sudan. The White and Blue Nile meet at Khartoum in Sudan to form the Nile, which flows downhill to Egypt and the Mediterranean.

 

(Snip)

 

 

A lot of this may also be caused by domestic problems in Egypt. ie they are broke deeply in debt, and a large portion of the population (including the military) is not real happy with the MB and how they are running the country.