Attack on Turkish soldiers spotlights Ankara’s Idlib conundrum

[Valin]

Long War Journal

Aykan Erdemir & Luc Sasseville

March 31, 2020

On March 19, Turkey’s defense ministry announced the death of two Turkish soldiers at the hands of “radical elements” in northwest Syria’s Idlib. The men were killed in a de-escalation zone that Turkey and Russia first delineated in 2018 and reaffirmed with a ceasefire deal on March 5. Hurras al-Din, an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, may have been responsible, although the group hasn’t claimed responsibility for the attack. The killings highlight Ankara’s challenges, as the deal with Moscow forces the Turkish government to either coopt, confront, or reach some other accommodation with the al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadists living and operating in Idlib.

The ambush targeted Turkish soldiers patrolling the M-4 motorway, a major road that runs from east to west through Idlib. It took place northwest of the town of Mahambel and came after a March 15 video by a joint operations room, which also includes Hurras al-Din, calling for embracing the fighting and rejecting “surrender solutions” of the ceasefire deal. A pro-Syrian regime journalist also claimed in a tweet that Hurras al-Din was responsible for the attack, although the militant group rejected its involvement. Turkey’s defense ministry refrained from naming the group responsible, but claimed that its forces “retaliated in proportion.”

Ankara’s attempts to implement joint patrols with Russia along the M-4 motorway result from the shaky ceasefire deal Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin brokered on March 5. Since the joint patrols began on March 15, they have met with significant opposition. On the first day of the joint patrols, civilians and several jihadist groups, such as Ansar al-Islam, blocked the path of Turkish forces patrolling along the highway. The implementation of the ceasefire will continue to present new challenges for Turkey, as Erdogan must now compel Idlib’s various jihadist factions to at least tacitly accept Turkey’s increased role as the dominant patron of the insurgents in Idlib.

(Snip)