Iran: Nothing Works But Victory Assured

[Valin]

StrategyPage

Oct. 19 2021

The May elections were decided by the religious dictatorship, not the will of the Iranian people. The new president and at least half the senior officials are known supporters of Islamic terrorists and many are recognized as supporters or practitioners of terrorism against Iranians and foreigners. The decision to install such a government has consequences and one of them is a hardline approach to negotiations over Iranian nuclear weapons development and the economic sanctions placed on Iran because of the nukes. The new Iranian government ordered its negotiators to make demands that even the most pro-Iran Western officials could not accept. Initially the new Iranian negotiators made it clear that Iran wants all sanctions lifted before any serious, and probably unsuccessful, negotiations over ending the Iranian nuclear weapons program can take place. This attitude has not changed since May. Iran still has the support of China, which became more important in August when the Taliban overthrew the elected government. China and Iran share a similar attitude to Islamic terrorist threats. More importantly, China does not see Iranian nukes as a problem because Iran understands that China has no qualms about using extreme (even nuclear) violence against any threats by a nuclear armed Iran. China is telling Iran that China can be their best friend or worst enemy. So far Iran is playing nice towards China because that makes it easier to pressure European countries into lifting sanctions despite Iran continuing with its nuclear problem. This Chinese support has caused nearly all Western nations to adopt a “no concessions” attitude. That means assent to Israeli air strikes against Iranian nuclear weapons facilities.

Nine days ago, the Iranian situation got worse when an Iran educated Iraqi religious leader, Muqtada al Sadr, won control of the Iraqi parliament in the national elections. Sadr is hostile to Iranian influence in Iraq, especially the way Iran exploits the Iraqi corruption to maintain Iranian influence in Iraq. Pro-Iran Iraqis, who want Iraq to have a government like Iran’s, insisted the October 10 elections were fraudulent. Corruption is usually a factor in Iraqi elections, with voters or voting officials bribed or threatened in order to favor a particular candidate. The only reliable antidote to that is to compare opinion polls taken before the vote with the outcome of the vote. The polls have remained relatively corruption-free and this time they showed the vote following what the polls were saying; the reform coalitions, especially the dominant Sadr faction, would win.

There Are Other Problems

In the north Iran rattled sabers towards Azerbaijan, which it accused of supporting Israeli operations against Iran. The Azeris responded by holding joint military operations with Turkey, accepting Russian support and continuing to spend money on Israeli weapons while also buying Turkish weapons and encouraging competition between Israel and the Turks in that area. Azerbaijan considers themselves “free Azeri Turks” compared to the majority of Azeri Turks who still live under Persian (Iranian) Rule......(Snip)