Third Parties on the Horizon: What Does History Say?

[Valin]

Real Clear Politics

Andrew E. Busch

Oct. 19 2021

First of two parts

After a brief respite in the 2020 election, attention is turning again to the possibility of third parties playing a significant role in American politics.

In 2016, both the Libertarian Party ticket and the Green Party ticket received an unusually large number of votes – a record-high 3% for the Libertarians and second-best ever 1% for the Greens. Also that year, former House Republican policy director Evan McMullin ran as an independent, garnering some votes from anti-Trump Republicans and threatening Donald Trump’s lead in Utah for a time. In 2020, however, enthusiasm for these options was limited, and third-party vote percentages were much lower than four years before.

Now the wheel has turned again. Democratic divisions, openly on display in Congress, have also led to the defection of a notable party figure. Andrew Yang, a 2020 candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination and a 2021 Democratic candidate for mayor of New York, has announced the formation of the Forward Party. Yang has indicated the party is not planning to run a presidential candidate in 2024, though it may yet decide to do so. On the other side of the partisan divide, anti-Trump Republicans, who had hoped that the president’s defeat and ignominious departure from the White House would allow for a fresh start, are disheartened. Adjusting to the possibility that the GOP still belongs to Donald Trump, they are also thinking about their options. Conservative commentator Jonah Goldberg has suggested that they, too, create a third party.

What does the history of third parties or independent candidacies tell us?

(Snip)