Twenty Years After 9/11:

[Valin]

Combating Terrorism Center

The Terror Threat From Afghanistan Post the Taliban Takeover

September 2021, Volume 14, Issue 7

 

Abstract: President Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan depended on a critical assessment of the terrorism landscape in Afghanistan. At the time of his decision, he argued that the terrorism threat from Afghanistan was both low and manageable for the foreseeable future. This article argues that the Biden administration’s assessment of the terrorism threat was flawed, and with the Taliban’s return to power, the threat is growing. Afghanistan’s dynamic terrorism landscape is dotted by the significant presence of al-Qa`ida and its local units, the Islamic State in Afghanistan, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Central Asian jihadis, anti-India jihadis, and anti-China jihadis. Part of this landscape benefits from the Taliban’s support to a number of groups in the country, as well as the ties of some of the groups with each other. The perception of the Afghan Taliban’s total takeover of the country amid a humiliating U.S. withdrawal is iconic for jihadis, and it is likely to substantially bolster their morale and strength. Contrary to claims of the Biden administration, U.S. counterterrorism capacity in the region is likely to remain weak for the foreseeable future. Twenty years after the 9/11 attacks, the terrorism threat from Afghanistan endures for the United States and the rest of the world.

Early in his presidency, President Joe Biden faced a major decision on Afghanistan: to end America’s involvement in the war that started due to the 9/11 attacks 20 years earlier, or to keep U.S. military forces in the country. Having long defined the core U.S. goal in Afghanistan as countering terrorism, Biden’s decision came to depend on a critical assessment of the terrorism landscape in Afghanistan.^a His administration appears to have made four major judgments. First, the terrorism threat from Afghanistan to the United States was assessed as being minimal.^b Second, future threats may emerge on a long enough time horizon that they can be dealt with by utilizing offshore counterterrorism approaches.^c Third, the Afghan Taliban can be compelled into complying with their commitment to not provide safe haven to jihadis.^d Finally, the United States can afford to be indifferent to locally and regionally focused threats in and around Afghanistan.^e With these judgments, Biden decided in favor of withdrawing U.S. military forces from Afghanistan.

As will be argued in this article, these judgments by the Biden administration were flawed, and the Taliban’s return to power has exacerbated the terrorism threat beyond the level that existed when the decision to withdraw the U.S. forces was made. A close look at Afghanistan reveals that the United States has left the country with a dynamic terrorism landscape posing local, regional, and transnational threats. Much of this situation benefits from the Taliban’s enduring relationships with various jihadi groups in the country despite the Taliban’s commitments to curtail terrorist groups under the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement. Groups that benefit from the Taliban’s support include al-Qa`ida and its local units, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), various Central Asian jihadis, anti-India jihadis, and anti-China jihadis like the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). There is also a sizable cadre of foreign fighters across various groups, including in the ranks of al-Qa`ida.¹ Separately, the Islamic State of Afghanistan, a rival of the Taliban, appears to be recovering after military losses—and remains committed to targeting Afghan civilians. Most of these groups face constraints, but they retain important strengths despite years of U.S. counterterrorism pressure. This overall landscape does not lend to the interpretation of major terrorist degradation that the administration has offered.

Looking ahead, the U.S. withdrawal and the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul are iconic milestones for global jihadis, and both are likely to bolster their morale and strength substantially. This will increase the threats groups in Afghanistan pose locally, regionally, and to the United States. Additionally, factors like weak U.S. counterterrorism capacity, the Afghan Taliban’s enduring relationships with foreign jihadis, inter-militant competition, China’s growing regional footprint, Pakistani state policies, and great power competition are likely to further aggravate the threat landscape. Twenty years after the 9/11 attacks and the U.S. decision to topple the Afghan Taliban regime, not only is the Taliban back in power but also the terrorism threat from Afghanistan endures for the United States and the rest of the world.

These arguments are developed in three steps. First, the article describes the Afghan Taliban’s position on, and politics toward, jihadi activities in Afghanistan, particularly in light of the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement. Second, the article assesses the terrorism threat emanating from Afghanistan. Third, the author identifies factors that will likely worsen the threat landscape going forward. The concluding section discusses the implications for counterterrorism policy. The author draws on a combination of open-source materials and interviews in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States conducted between 2018 to 2021, including on a research trip to Afghanistan and Pakistan in July 2021.

The U.S. Withdrawal and Politics of the Afghan Taliban

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[Valin]

British intel chief has 'big concern' over potential large-scale terror attack following Afghanistan exit

Joel Gehrke, Foreign Affairs Reporter

September 10, 2021

British intelligence officials fear large-scale terrorist attacks against the West in the wake of the Taliban ’s return to power in Kabul, and one U.S. lawmaker described Afghanistan as an emerging "terror super-state."

The grim forecast came as the United States prepares to mark the 20th anniversary of 9/11 with the terrorist government back in control of the lawless country from which the attack was launched.

"There is no doubt that events in Afghanistan will have heartened and emboldened some of those extremists,” the United Kingdom’s MI5 director-general, Ken McCallum, told the BBC. "The big concern flowing from Afghanistan alongside the immediate inspirational effect is the risk that terrorists reconstitute and once again pose us more in the way of well-developed, sophisticated plots of the sort that we faced in 9/11 and the years thereafter.”

Taliban officials maintain that they will not offer safe haven to jihadists plotting overseas attacks, a pledge that helped persuade then-President Donald Trump ’s administration to sign a landmark peace deal with the militants and begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan last year. Yet U.S. lawmakers and officials from neighboring states remain uneasy about that promise, particularly following the Taliban’s announcement that Afghanistan’s interior ministry will be helmed by Sirajuddin Haqqani, a notorious terrorist.

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[Valin]

Leave us hope  and Pray all these guys are WRONG.

[Valin]

Sept. 13 2021

There is much talk of the Taliban’s spectacular victory encouraging Islamists in the Middle East and beyond; one month later, what does the record show? And to what extent has this event repulsed Muslims away from Islamism, as in Morocco, where the Islamist party lost 90 percent of its support?