Terrorism in South Asia After the Fall of Afghanistan

[Valin]

War On The Rocks

Kabir Taneja and Mohammed Sinan Siyech

Aug. 23 2021

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The short-term imperatives of saving as many Afghans as possible will soon give way to an assessment of what the new Afghanistan means for international security. For countries in South Asia — particularly India — the withdrawal of U.S. forces, collapse of the Afghan military, and ascendance of the Taliban pose a massive counter-terrorism threat. Transnational groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, as well as their affiliates and regional branches, will likely step up their activities from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed could eventually use the country as a base to launch attacks in Kashmir or other parts of India, as they did in the 1990s. While the Pakistani Taliban has lost much of its strength, it could reconstitute in Afghanistan and launch attacks into Pakistan. All of this will have immense implications for the future of jihadism in South Asia and beyond.

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The Future of Jihadism in a Post-American Afghanistan

The Taliban’s success in Afghanistan will have far reaching effects on the resilience of other groups looking to conduct attacks across South Asia. Firstly, the Taliban’s perceived victory over the United States will likely inspire jihadist groups. Various groups in Syria and Palestine have celebrated the Taliban’s takeover. Others will be inspired by the Taliban’s new resources and international prestige, especially if other countries begin to formally recognize the government in Kabul.

Second, Afghanistan will almost certainly become an attractive destination for South Asian extremists (and jihadists from other parts of the world) once again. Despite differences with the Taliban, the Islamic State could strengthen its position in Afghanistan from disenfranchised factions of the Taliban and continue to attract more South Asians. Several Indians travelled to Afghanistan and joined Islamic State Khorasan Province in 2016 and 2017. Some former members of disbanded groups such as the Indian Mujahideen and Students’ Islamic Movement of India also joined the Islamic State Khorasan Province. The Taliban victory is sure to make it easier for extremists to enter Afghanistan.

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Looking Ahead

The end of the U.S. military’s involvement in Afghanistan does not mean the end of terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan. The country will continue to host numerous terrorist groups that threaten the interests of numerous states in the region and beyond. Afghanistan may not prove to be the terrorist safe haven that it was immediately before 9/11, but the United States and its allies will have fewer capabilities and resources to combat the threat that does emerge. After the United States and others respond to the immediate crisis on the ground in Kabul, they will be left to put together a counter-terrorism strategy for Afghanistan with fewer tools than they had before. Crafting new approaches will require a deep understanding of the various groups operating in Afghanistan and throughout South Asia.