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The Louisiana Effect


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the-louisiana-effectThere Surgent: The Louisiana Effect

By Steve Berman | March 7, 2016, 09:20am

Ted Cruz won Louisiana with voters who voted on March 5. The numbers are clear.


In election day voting, Cruz received 40.1 percent of the vote, beating Trump by 621 votes. Cruz took 29 out of 64 parishes that day. Trump won 100 percent of the parishes in early voting, beating Cruz by 11,490 votes (46.7 to 22.9 percent).


The final percentages were Trump 41.4, Cruz 37.8, and Rubio 11.2. Trump won by 10,869 votes and split the delegate haul 18 to 18 with Cruz (Rubio got the other 5 delegates).


By contrast, in Georgia, the early voting trend matched election day. You’d expect that to continue with the huge new voter hauls Trump has generated. But in Louisiana, things were different.


What changed? Thursday’s debate, where Marco Rubio took out Trump at the knees, and Cruz body tackled him to the ground in an under-over takedown. Not only did this visibly shake the frontrunner, it also had real effects at the polls. Scissors-32x32.png

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