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Which Party Is Trump Winning?


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First, the obvious notes from Super Tuesday. Donald Trump further cleared his path to the Republican nomination — but he also underperformed expectations, winning seven and not 10 or 11 states. Ted Cruz won three states, bolstering his claim to being the only viable Trump alternative, though he now heads for less friendly territory. Marco Rubio finally won a state, giving him hope going into Florida and other states that are closer to Minnesota, where he won, and Virginia, where he nearly did (but didn't because of John Kasich). At this point, the (narrow) path for either Cruz or Rubio likely involves a brokered convention.


Second, the underlying stories. Yes, Trump has won 10 of the first 15 states, but he only pulled a grand total of 34% of the vote Tuesday and has yet to win a majority anywhere. Combined, Cruz and Rubio have about 50%. And Trump's share of the delegates declined from 66% before Tuesday to 49%.


Bottom line: The reason Trump is the frontrunner is because there have always been too many alternatives. Two is still too many, not to mention four or the original 16. And no one really took him on until five days before Super Tuesday. Scissors-32x32.png


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