Seven Shocking Possibilities for the Middle East in 2015

[Valin]

Via Meadia:

Adam Garfinkle

Jan. 6 2015

 

Prognostication is always a mug’s game, and nowhere more so than in the Middle East. Nevertheless, it’s a fun game to play, especially when the subject is a region so poorly understood by the U.S. mainstream media that it frequently gets blindsided by events.

 

The following seven possibilities are not certain to come to pass, but they’re far more likely to happen than most casual observers and journalists think.

 

1. Saudi Arabian forces will invade Bahrain as the al-Khalifa loses it grip (as well as the rest of its mind) in dealing with the country’s majority Shi’a population. Washington will protest; the Saudis will point to Iranian aggression and tell us to mind our own business. The UAE will try to mediate U.S.-Saudi disagreement, probably in the confused context of a Saudi succession ordeal with the passing of King Abdallah, and (sort of) succeed.

 

(Snip)

 

7. Violence will erupt in Turkey between AKP and Gulenist factions.

 

Fasten your seat belts, folks! It’s going to be a crazy year.

 

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Think I'll bookmark this, just to see.