Egypt and the Threat of Islamic Terror

[Valin]

Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Egypts new rulers are faced with a terror problem emanating from the Sinai Peninsula, with the emergence of radical jihad groups. The US and international community must support the Egyptian regime to prevent the radical Islamic groups from turning Egypt into the next Syria.

Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay

January 1, 2014

 

 

 

On December 24, 2013, deadly bombings hit Mansoura, in Egypts Nile Delta region, killing twelve and injuring 134, in Egypts worst terrorist attack since the July ouster of Islamist president Mohamed Morsi. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, an al-Qaeda-inspired Islamist group, claimed responsibility for the attack.

 

Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi vowed to hunt down the perpetrators of the explosion, saying the attack was aimed at obstructing a roadmap drawn up by the countrys interim regime following Morsis ouster. The final phase of the roadmap will begin next month when a referendum on the newly-drafted constitution takes place, to be followed by parliamentary and presidential elections. A cabinet spokesman blamed the blast on Morsis Muslim Brotherhood, while el-Beblawi officially declared the group a terrorist organization.

 

Three main trends of terror activities can be observed in Egypt since the ouster of President Morsi. The first is Islamic terror in Sinai, which has become the main theater of confrontation between terror groups and the Egyptian armed forces. The second is the spillover of terror from Sinai to other parts of Egypt. The third is the increasing involvement of foreign groups al-Qaeda and Global Jihad in Egypt, and activity originating from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.

 

Islamic Terror in Sinai

 

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[Valin]

Egypt: A Tinderbox Waiting for a Spark

Behind the government's political transition and security measures lies a deeply unstable country.

Eric Trager

Jan 2 2014

 

Nearly six months after the mass uprising-cum-coup that toppled Mohammed Morsi, the key cleavages of Egypts domestic political conflict are not only unresolved, but unresolvable. The generals who removed Morsi are engaged in an existential struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood: They believe they must destroy the Brotherhoodby, for instance, designating it a terrorist organizationor else the Brotherhood will return to power and destroy them. Meanwhile, Sinai-based jihadists have used Morsis removal as a pretext for intensifying their violence, and have increasingly hit targets west of the Suez Canal. Even the Brotherhoods fiercest opponents are fighting among themselves: the coalition of entrenched state institutions and leftist political parties that rebelled against Morsi is fraying, and the youth activists who backed Morsis ouster in July are now protesting against the military-backed government, which has responded by arresting their leaders.

 

So despite the fact that Egypts post-Morsi transition is technically moving forward, with a new draft constitution expected to pass via referendum in mid-January and elections to follow shortly thereafter, the country is a tinderbox that could ignite with any spark, entirely derailing the political process and converting Egypts episodic tumult into severe instability. What might that spark be? Here are three possibilities:

 

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Theres a slim chance, of course, that any of these particular scenarios will occur. But Egypts unsettled political situation and swell of violence make the atmosphere ripe for further upheaval. Something will likely give.