It’s the polling folks.

[Draggingtree]

RedState:

 

 

 

It’s the polling folks.

 

 

By: mbecker908 (Diary) | September 26th, 2012 at 10:36 AM | 2

 

 

Today, Gravis Marketing released a poll showing Obama over Romney 45.2% to 44.3%. Brown is up over Mandel 43.9% to 43.0%.

 

Democrats up less than a point in both races and Romney is boots on the ground in Ohio.

 

So, what to make of this? Well gosh, thanks for asking.

 

If you’ll recall, I went on a rant yesterday about the polling numbers being designed to suppress Republican turnout. [Drum roll please]

 

In 2000 and 2004 GWB got 50% and 51% of the vote in Ohio, winning by 3% and 2% respectively. In 2008 Obama won Ohio by 5% with 52% of the vote.

 

In 2010 Republicans won EVERY statewide election.

 

The Gravis Poll INTERNALS look like this:

• Sample size: 594 likely voters.
  
• Margin of error: 4.3%
  
• Affiliation of sample voters: D / R / I — 41.4% / 31.1% / 27.5%
  

In other words, they’ve got Dems up by 10.3% when Obama won in 08 by 4%. Maybe

[Draggingtree]

The Numbers The Media And Pollsters Don’t Want You To See

 

September 27, 2012 | Filed under 2012 Presidential Race | Posted by Doug Johnson

Obama’s lapdog media is going “balls to the wall” to convince voters that Obama is currently trouncing challenger Mitt Romney. The problem is to get their polling data to support their preferred narrative they have to assume that Democratic voters are even more enamored with Obama than they were in 2008. Of course they won’t tell you that because no rational person would believe that Barack Obama is riding a wave of support greater than is historic 2008 support.

Others are covering how pollsters are reaching wildly different conclusions by over sampling expected turnout of various groups – see the links at the bottom of this post for more on that

http://wizbangblog.com/2012/09/27/the-numbers-the-media-and-pollsters-dont-want-you-to-see/

[Draggingtree]

Is 2012 Different ?

 

 

By: barleycorn (Diary) | September 28th, 2012 at 09:54 AM | 0

 

Over the course of my political lifetime most presidential races ended up going the way you would expect them to.

 

In 1980 Carter was awful, the economy was awful, hostages in Iran, killer rabbits in Georgia. It was no contest really. Once people were reassured that Ronald Reagan wouldn’t launch a nuclear strike at 12:01 pm January 20, the choice made itself.

 

In 1984 the only question was Reagan’s age and mental state. Once he answered that question it was a laugh all the way through.

 

1988 was a bit tougher but by this time of the year it was clear that absent some awful gaffe by GHWB, Dukakis was toast.

 

1992 was a weird year what with Ross Perot popping in and out, but by this stage of the campaign it was http://www.redstate.com/barleycorn/2012/09/28/is-2012-different/

[Draggingtree]

39 Days to Election Day: Kansas

 

 

By: davenj1 (Diary) | September 28th, 2012 at 07:09 AM | 0

 

This will be a very short entry as there is not much controversy or suspense in Kansas. As concerns the presidential race, Romney will take Kansas’ six electoral votes easily. This is a very red state and should be no problem. While liberals are touting the fact that Romney may go down to defeat of epic proportions in Massachusetts, the same can be said of Obama in Kansas.

 

With no Governor or Senatorial races on the ballot, that leaves the four House races- currently all Republican with all of them running for reelection. In fact, there is so much a lack of suspense that http://www.redstate.com/davenj1/2012/09/28/39-days-to-election-day-kansas/

[Draggingtree]

I question the polls in Colorado…

 

 

By: drohan00 (Diary) | September 28th, 2012 at 11:08 AM | 0

 

After a spate of negative posts, I can say that I have now been to Colorado on a political jaunt. I went to knock on doors in the Denver Suburbs and also around Ft. Collins. I can say that the GOP enthusiasm is pretty high, given the carpet bombing by the media there.

 

The polls almost all say that Obama will have a higher turnout in Colorado than in 2008. I think that is crazy, and I think the Democrats know it. The Republicans in rural eastern Colorado are doing their utmost to support Republicans and Republican candidates. From Sterling to Brush there http://www.redstate.com/drohan00/2012/09/28/i-question-the-polls-in-colorado/

[Draggingtree]

The Five False Assumptions Behind Poll-Skewing

 

September 27, 2012 - 11:20 am - by Zombie

 

Polls polls polls polls polls. In the weeks leading up to a presidential election, that’s all anyone talks about. Polls subsume all other news: Every soundbite, disaster, current event, policy, gaffe, decision and incident are merely vectors in pollspace, data which may or may not nudge the candidates’ numbers up or down a notch.

Therefore he who controls the polls can retroactively control everything that happens: Any event or utterance can be afterward spun as wonderful or ruinous if you can demonstrate that the subsequent poll showed a bounce or a dip. Polls are seen as irrefutable ex post facto evidence that a slanted news report was in fact accurate: “See? You complained when we quickly labeled the candidate’s joke as a ‘gaffe,’ but this new poll shows he dropped three points, so that proves it really was a gaffe.”

As a result, the 2012 presidential campaign is paralleled by a surrogate Poll War enjoined by each side’s supporters in the punditocracy. Whatever else happens in real life, the partisans are in an endless down-and-dirty mud-wrestling match over the veracity and reliability of polls.

The Purpose of Poll-Skewing

Each side has defined for itself an ultimate goal. Obama’s supporters in the media and online strive incessantly to demonstrate and publicize that Obama is ahead in the polls. Romney’s supporters strive to demonstrate that those polls are skewed, since the published totals are “weighted” (i.e. arbitrarily distorted) to match statistics about past voter behavior that are no longer true.

Now, if you had just landed on Earth from another galaxy, you likely would be very confused about this behavior on the part of the poll-wrestlers. Presuming there is such a thing as objective reality, there must be a certain true percentage of

http://pjmedia.com/zombie/2012/09/27/the-five-false-assumptions-behind-poll-skewing/

[Pepper]

That is a good article, @Draggingtree

The Five False Assumptions Behind Poll-Skewing