Romney Appeals to White Collars, Santorum to Blue

[Rokke]

Realclearpolitics.com:

Both Santorum and Romney can reasonably claim that he would be a stronger candidate in the general election. Republican voters in contests that count may want to examine and evaluate their claims.

Each can cite some supportive polls. Santorum, not as yet the target of high visibility negative campaigning, can point to recent national and Ohio polls showing him running stronger against Barack Obama. Romney can cite other national and Virginia polls showing him doing so.

Santorum's case is that he has shown appeal to blue-collar voters -- to the non-college-educated whites whom Democrats have been enticing to return to their fold for decades.

His platform, with its zero corporate tax on manufacturing, is tailored to appeal to these voters. And he believes that his strong conservative stand on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage can establish a link with tradition-minded people in Catholic neighborhoods and old factory towns.

The Obama administration's attempted decree that Catholic charities must buy health insurance including abortion pills gives him a strong talking point.

But are there as many votes there as Santorum thinks? The old steelworker House district where he was first elected in 1990 has been losing population ever since. And even in 2008, John McCain won non-college whites by a 58 percent to 40 percent margin.

Santorum would probably run better among this group than Romney, whose unforced errors and political tin ear have made him seem aloof.

But there's also a case to be made that Romney may run better among another, less noticed group -- affluent voters.

This year and in 2008, Romney's best showings in primaries have come in affluent areas. And polling seems to indicate that he does particularly well with affluent women.

Those are groups among whom Republicans have been slipping for more than a decade. In the 2008 presidential election, voters with incomes over $100,000 split 49 percent to 49 percent.