clearvision Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Debates move people quickly when we are unsure of the choices being offered. Sort of like Perry in the opposite extreme on impact debate can have. One debate and he dropped 20%, he started to recover and then another awful debate and he was gone. He was going to be my guy, until that debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rokke Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The Romney campaign and its supporters spent $17 million almost exclusively on negative attack ads in Florida. If negative ads aren't effective, than he's got the most misguided and wasteful campaign in history. And while I agree that Newt probably wasn't going to do well in Florida, he was leading by double digits there shortly after South Carolina. If a couple debate one-liners in South Carolina were enough to rocket him well past Romney, that is just another indicator of how shallow Romney's support is. I agree with your comment about a couple of debate one-liners, but not the negative ads. The national polls all switched on a dime after that debate, the national polls all switched backed to Romney within days of that debate. The nation did not get bombarded with the the negative ads. Maybe some press articles on them. So it is possible the ads had a small to large effect in Florida (I think small). It is harder to say they had an effect on the national results in that same week span from when Newt jumped after the debate, and then drifted back below Romney again. I looked at several polls on different dates during those periods and all showed the spike and then drift back down. Accroding to RCP, Gingrich was leading in the national polls even after Florida. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html His pummeling by Romney was focused in Florida. His pummeling by the Republican establishment was nation wide and constant. Drudge had a new hit piece article every few minutes. People were crawling out of the woodwork after SC to slam Newt. Some of what they said was true. Some wasn't. And some (like Bob Dole's weird piece) was just plain strange. But the shear volume of negative stories against Newt during that period actually became a news story itself. I've never seen anything like it. Newt didn't respond well, but Mother Theresa's reputation would have crumbled under the "uncoordinated" media assault thrown at Newt between SC and FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clearvision Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You have a point about national coverage. I guess I was focused on ads since that what was being discussed. The RCP average is wrong. Look at the details. It still has Rasmussen result from quite a bit earlier. The other polls flipped and Rasmussen's Florida specific poll flipped back like the other polls. Just has not been a new national poll by them in two weeks. Should be out shortly though. Edit: Wrong is probably not the correct word as it is an average, but of very few infrequently updated polls (1 is updated every 2 weeks). So it is sort of a lagging indicator based on other polls which are few and far between at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Hot Air: Should we have more debates in this primary cycle? (Snip) Yes, we need to see more from these candidates Yes, but only if format changes to actual substantive debate No, we have enough on the schedule now No, we should get rid of the debates still on the schedule Unsure/no opinion Click On Link To vote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTexan Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I love Newt in the debates... but revert back to my gut feelings about him the minute the stage lights go down. About two or three years ago I started "following" Newt on Twitter. I only followed a few folks like Sarah, VDH and Newt. Newt would tweet every time he had a meal, a snack or a bowel movement... (and sometimes when he went #1). These tweets showed me a guy that put one thing in the center of his universe... himself. He seemed terribly immature, self absorbed, and willing to lean in the direction of the daily prevailing breeze. That's just my opinion for what it's worth. I untweeted him after about a year and my opinion was etched in stone. I don't doubt that if winning, building a TEAM, and performing in the White House hinged strictly on debate performance... Newt would win hands down. In any case, any of the remaining GOP contenders will get my vote over Obama... Yup even Ron Paul. At his age and mental state I'm not sure that we'd have to put up with him for a full four years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rokke Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Quote from the Santorum campaign regarding Romney's negative attack focus on Rick.... "If Governor Romney is confident running on his record and his vision for the future, he would," Santorum spokesman Hogan Gidley told Yahoo News."But Gov. Romney does what he always does and directs his well-funded attack machine to destroy the opponent. Mitt Romney's act is tired, old and wearing thin with voters and I suspect at this point, with the media too. Romney never touts his own record — because it's abysmal." Expect an all out media assault on Rick soon. Like McCain in 2008, Mitt will be remarkably untouched by the media until he becomes the nominee. Then...whammo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pollyannaish Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I love Newt in the debates... but revert back to my gut feelings about him the minute the stage lights go down. About two or three years ago I started "following" Newt on Twitter. I only followed a few folks like Sarah, VDH and Newt. Newt would tweet every time he had a meal, a snack or a bowel movement... (and sometimes when he went #1). These tweets showed me a guy that put one thing in the center of his universe... himself. He seemed terribly immature, self absorbed, and willing to lean in the direction of the daily prevailing breeze. That's just my opinion for what it's worth. I untweeted him after about a year and my opinion was etched in stone. Yup, and yup. You nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Townhall: What Really Happened to the Gingrich Ethics Case? Byron York 2/6/12 The Romney campaign has been hitting Newt Gingrich hard over the 1990s ethics case that resulted in the former speaker being reprimanded and paying a $300,000 penalty. Romney mentions it often, and his campaign made the ethics case the focus of the most widely viewed attack ad of the Florida primary. Given all that attention, it's worth asking what actually happened back in 1995, 1996 and 1997. The Gingrich case was extraordinarily complex, intensely partisan, and driven in no small way by a personal vendetta on the part of one of Gingrich's former political opp onents. It received saturation coverage in the press; a database search of major media outlets revealed more than 10,000 references to Gingrich's ethics problems during the six months leading to his reprimand. It ended with a special counsel hired by the House Ethics Committee holding Gingrich to an astonishingly strict standard of behavior, after which Gingrich in essence pled guilty to two minor offenses. Afterward, the case was referred to the Internal Revenue Service, which conducted an exhaustive investigation into the matter -- and then, three years later, completely exonerated Gingrich. It's that last part of the story you don't hear about much. (Snip) Question: Will the Romney campaign or his super pac (which of course he has absolutely no control over what so ever, and has no idea who is running them...although there are rumors that it is being run by space aliens from there super secret base outside of Astana Kazakhstan) will drop this. As this is the 2nd time Byron has wrote about this, I some how doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clearvision Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Right now RCP (I did not look for anomalies on individual polls) Has against Obama (popular vote) Romney -4% Gingrich -11.2% Santorum -8.6% Paul -6.2% Newt furthest out. Of course this is popular vote and really all that matters is voting here: Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Right now RCP (I did not look for anomalies on individual polls) Has against Obama (popular vote) Romney -4% Gingrich -11.2% Santorum -8.6% Paul -6.2% Newt furthest out. Of course this is popular vote and really all that matters is voting here: Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) That and a $1.50 will buy you a cup of coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clearvision Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The polls are clearly having issues. Any poll that suddenly has Santorum up over Obama by 1% when all others (and last version of same poll) have him down 7% to 12% is whacked. And that on no news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rheo Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 My FB friend, John has a pretty good write up. Five Ways Barack Obama Could Win A Second Term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clearvision Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That and a $1.50 will buy you a cup of coffee. Clearly not a Starbucks drinker are you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That and a $1.50 will buy you a cup of coffee. Clearly not a Starbucks drinker are you... I went there once. overpriced. I have a cup that says "All I want is a lousy cup of coffee". Bout sums it up. no rainbow kiwi strawberry foo foo free rage organically grown coffee for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clearvision Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That and a $1.50 will buy you a cup of coffee. Clearly not a Starbucks drinker are you... I went there once. overpriced. I have a cup that says "All I want is a lousy cup of coffee". Bout sums it up. no rainbow kiwi strawberry foo foo free rage organically grown coffee for me. Ha. There normal is $3.00 you want the fru-fru stuff and your looking at close to $5. I think. I have never bought a coffee in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rheo Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ha. There normal is $3.00 you want the fru-fru stuff and your looking at close to $5. I think. I have never bought a coffee in my life. Except for those times when your wife wants one...then it is 7-11 coffee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geee Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That and a $1.50 will buy you a cup of coffee. Clearly not a Starbucks drinker are you... McDonalds-a buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That and a $1.50 will buy you a cup of coffee. Clearly not a Starbucks drinker are you... McDonalds-a buck When I was a kid it was "That and a quarter will buy you a cup of coffee." Give me two fingers of Geritol straight up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHIiR7yr9rM The Great One, asks a very interesting question.BTW just got back from a Gingrich rally....(I'm really bad at guessing) but I'd say around 600-800 showed up. + 3 OWSers, they got shut down real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pollyannaish Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @Valin what size of pool was he drawing from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @Valin what size of pool was he drawing from? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pollyannaish Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @Valin. What was the size of the area he was drawing from? Was it a metropolis or a small town of 1300? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @Valin. What was the size of the area he was drawing from? Was it a metropolis or a small town of 1300? The Gingrich Rally? The Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pollyannaish Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Thanks. Just getting a feel for size of crowd per size of city. By the way @Valin, does that mean I can start calling you Mr. Grant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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