The End of U.S. Maritime Dominance? Not So Fast Argues Naval Strategist

[ErnstBlofeld]

Defense Tech:

 

 

In a new research paper I came across, Geoffrey Till, a top-notch historian and naval strategist, looks at the notion that this is shaping up to be China’s century, not America’s, and that the maritime decline of the U.S. is a foregone conclusion. He contends that predicting the rise and fall of great power maritime dominance is a bit trickier and harder to measure than many claim.

 

The debate itself is being driven by economics, of course; China’s GDP witnessed an astonishing 10-fold increase between 1978 and 2004. A “highly effective” government stimulus program and massive credit expansion meant China recovered quickly from the financial crisis; the U.S. has not. In 2000, U.S. GDP was eight times larger than China’s; now it’s only four times larger. “Historically, growth in GDP has a high correlation with naval expenditure,” writes Till.

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2010 by Rheo
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[Valin]

sonofstrangelove

 

Thanks! Something we should keep in mind amidst all the doom and gloom.

[ErnstBlofeld]

sonofstrangelove

 

Thanks! Something we should keep in mind amidst all the doom and gloom.

 

The Navy will keep all of their 11 carrier battlegroups,they will get their F-35s,UAVs,new Aegis Ships. I would like to see more carrier battlegroups in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans to offset the Chinese

[AceRimmer]

The Pacific Fleet is the reason the Chicoms have never tried to make a move on Taiwan, but it worries me that they're getting a little more frisky as their economy is tanking. I'd think Japan, South Korea, and even Vietnam might be getting a little nervous about the noise coming from Beijing.

[Valin]

The Pacific Fleet is the reason the Chicoms have never tried to make a move on Taiwan, but it worries me that they're getting a little more frisky as their economy is tanking. I'd think Japan, South Korea, and even Vietnam might be getting a little nervous about the noise coming from Beijing.

 

 

Might be getting a little nervous? Oh I'd say that's pretty much a given.

[AceRimmer]

The Pacific Fleet is the reason the Chicoms have never tried to make a move on Taiwan, but it worries me that they're getting a little more frisky as their economy is tanking. I'd think Japan, South Korea, and even Vietnam might be getting a little nervous about the noise coming from Beijing.

 

 

Might be getting a little nervous? Oh I'd say that's pretty much a given.

 

The Japanese are already planning to beef up their navy, and South Korea is ramping up it military with exercises with the US as Kim Il Jong is on his last legs. India is already moving forces towards its China border. Taiwan has PacFlt and is upgrading it's fighters. I have no idea what Vietnam is up to, but if they're coming to us over concerns about China, you have to figure something bad is on the way.

 

And finally, and I'll keep on saying it: Don't forget the Bear in the North.

[Valin]

The Pacific Fleet is the reason the Chicoms have never tried to make a move on Taiwan, but it worries me that they're getting a little more frisky as their economy is tanking. I'd think Japan, South Korea, and even Vietnam might be getting a little nervous about the noise coming from Beijing.

 

 

Might be getting a little nervous? Oh I'd say that's pretty much a given.

 

The Japanese are already planning to beef up their navy, and South Korea is ramping up it military with exercises with the US as Kim Il Jong is on his last legs. India is already moving forces towards its China border. Taiwan has PacFlt and is upgrading it's fighters. I have no idea what Vietnam is up to, but if they're coming to us over concerns about China, you have to figure something bad is on the way.

 

And finally, and I'll keep on saying it: Don't forget the Bear in the North.

 

 

Always!

[AceRimmer]

The Japanese Imperial Army and the Chicoms have both tried to take on the Russians, and gotten their *sses handed to them. But if the Chicoms get desperate enough, they might try a rematch.

 

Think of it this way: they're never going to be able to invade Taiwan, because they lack the amphibious ability to put enough troops on the island, ditto for Japan, South Korea and India will fight to the death to stop them, and the US, UK, and a lot of NATO will back them up.

 

That leaves Siberia.

 

Like I said, it's a Tom Clancy novel becoming real. He forecast the 9-11 attacks in "The Sum of All Fears"(the last 100 pages are very scary, and you can't put them down), and "Debt of Honor".

 

Finally, there's "The Bear and the Dragon". While it's not Clancy's best book, it's a harbinger of what may happen when the Chicoms get really desperate.

[Valin]

The Japanese Imperial Army tried to take on the Russians, and gotten their *sses handed to them.

 

 

Are you talking about the Russo-Japanese war? If you are I would point out it was the Russians that got their asses handed to them.

[AceRimmer]

The Japanese Imperial Army tried to take on the Russians, and gotten their *sses handed to them.

 

 

Are you talking about the Russo-Japanese war? If you are I would point out it was the Russians that got their asses handed to them.

 

Khalkhin-Gol Look it up. Zhukov wiped them out. I was referring to land battles in Mongolia and eastern Siberia when the Japanese and Chicoms both took on the Red Army, and got beaten like a red-haired stepchild.

[Valin]

The Japanese Imperial Army tried to take on the Russians, and gotten their *sses handed to them.

 

 

Are you talking about the Russo-Japanese war? If you are I would point out it was the Russians that got their asses handed to them.

 

Khalkhin-Gol Look it up. Zhukov wiped them out. I was referring to land battles in Mongolia and eastern Siberia when the Japanese and Chicoms both took on the Red Army, and got beaten like a red-haired stepchild.

 

 

Thanks, I must admit I know very little about that war. I'll look it up. Who knows, I might learn something....it could happen....stranger things have happened.

[AceRimmer]

Thanks, I must admit I know very little about that war. I'll look it up. Who knows, I might learn something....it could happen....stranger things have happened.

 

The IJA and Chicoms took on the Red Army about 30 years apart, but both had their arses handed to them. I'm not sure if the Chicom incursion was the final straw, but it wasn't long after that that the old Vulcan proverb: "Only Nixon could go to China" happened.