Primary Focus: Whose Clout is at Stake

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Politico:

Primary focus: Whose clout is at stake

By ALEXANDER BURNS | 5/17/10 9:09 AM EDT


Tuesday’s primary elections in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas won’t just be a test of the national political environment. They’ll also offer a clearer look at who’s shaping up to be a powerful force in 2010 and who’s already struggling to stay relevant in the long midterm cycle. The national party committees, congressional leaders and the White House are already drawing weak grades for their performance in this week’s elections. Here are some of the other players with prestige on the line:

The Ed Rendell machine

Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor has one of the most storied political operations in the country, and his early, unflagging support for Sen. Arlen Specter was supposed to be something of a fail safe for the party-switching incumbent. The governor warned Rep. Joe Sestak against challenging Specter, saying on MSNBC last year that the congressman could get “15 or 18 percent” in a primary and predicting: “He would get killed.” This month, the governor’s party chairman, T.J. Rooney, warned that nominating Sestak could be “cataclysmic.”

A day before the election, the primary is far too close to call. But the trend line is in Sestak’s favor — Muhlenberg College’s last tracking poll showed the two Democrats tied at 44 percent — and Washington Democrats expect that Tuesday’s election will be Arlen Specter’s last. One of the biggest remaining questions is whether Rendell’s southeast Pennsylvania machine can put Specter even narrowly over the top — or whether Rendell will leave office next year with a significant loss on his record.

Bill Clinton

Former President Bill Clinton put his personal brand on the line in two of Tuesday’s elections, moving to help two struggling Democrats connect with the restive 2010 electorate. Clinton penned a fundraising appeal late last year for Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln and cut a pair of radio ads for her this month as she faced a tough primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, a former official in Clinton’s administration. And on Sunday, Clinton made a last-minute visit to Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District in an effort to give Democrat Mark Critz a boost in his bid to hold the seat of the late Rep. John Murtha.

Both these elections are almost tailor-made for Clinton’s involvement. One is in his home state, where he served as governor for more than a decade. The other is in the kind of white, working-class district that Clinton frequented during his wife’s presidential campaign, and where he stumped for Murtha’s reelection in 2008. Clinton may not be a voting issue in either election, but both are tests of his staying power a decade after leaving office.