Summary for Tomorrow's Primaries

[Geee]

Washington Examiner:

Summary for tomorrow's primaries
By: DAVID FREDDOSO
Online Opinion Editor
05/17/10 10:12 AM EDT

Tomorrow, voters in four states will go to the polls to choose party nominees, and in one district to choose a congressman. Here's how the races have shaped up:

Pennsylvania

Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., left the Republican Party last April, in the belief that he could not win a Republican primary against former Rep. Pat Toomey, R. At the time, liberal journalists delighted in the moderate's abandonment of the GOP, wondering aloud whether its supposed intolerance had turned it into a party of white, Southern old men. Much has changed since then.

For one thing, Specter now appears ready to lose the Democratic Senate primary to Rep. Joe Sestak, whose suburban Philadelphia district cuts into a key portion of Specter's geographic base -- the one that saved him from a GOP primary defeat at Toomey's hands in 2004. Meanwhile, it has only taken one year for President Obama's agenda in Congress to create such a hostile environment for Democrats that Toomey, the certain GOP nominee, now leads both Specter and Sestak in every general election poll. In most polls, Sestak does better than Specter in the general election.

In the state's vacant 12th Congressional District, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm whose numbers have proven reliable in the past, finds Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz in a dead heat. Burns leads by one point, 48 to 47 percent. Turnout will determine everything. A victory here, in the seat once held by Rep. Jack Murtha, D-Pa., would be the Republicans' first in a special House election since 2001.

Arkansas

This state, the last in the South to lose its Democratic lean, may finally turn bright Red in 2010. The process begins tomorrow.

The best chance for Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., to survive a primary challenge from her Left will come tomorrow. She is expected to finish with the most votes, but if she fails to reach the 50 percent mark, she may not survive a runoff on June 8. If she wins, she appears doomed in a November matchup against Republican Rep. John Boozman, the frontrunner in the GOP primary. Her main Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, polls poorly in the November matchup as well.

Meanwhile, nominees will be chosen for the seats of Boozman as well as retiring Democratic Reps. Vic Snyder and Marion Berry. Republicans will choose a challenger to the state's only incumbent congressman running for re-election, Mike Ross, D, whose campaign rhetoric is a full-blown run-for-cover distancing of himself from President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Term limits have also opened up a large number of state legislative seats as Republicans try to make inroads into the heavily Democratic state House and Senate ahead of 2010 redistricting.

Kentucky

Democrats will choose a Senate nominee between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway. Conway's uphill fight for the nomination may come up a bit short. Although the Republican primary is not nearly as close, it has generated much more interest. Ophthamologist Rand Paul, son of Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., is expected to win going away against Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Such a victory would cast serious doubt upon the strength of the state's Republican bosses, who are all behind Grayson. The year 2010 is proving conducive to Paul's libertarian-leaning message, for which he is a much more capable salesman than his father. Paul is favored in November against either Democrat.

Oregon

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., is one of the few safe Democrats in this year's Senate contests. The big race in Oregon will be for the governorship. Democrats are expected to nominate former Gov. John Kitzhaber; Republicans will likely choose former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley, who ranked among the worst free-throw shooters in NBA history.

At least one House race and possibly two could be competitive this year. Freshman Rep. Curt Schrader, D, will face the winner of tomorrow's contest between NRCC favorite Scott Bruun and Fred Thompson (no relation to the former senator from Tennessee). Republicans will also select a nominee to contest the seat of Rep. David Wu, D. Past runs at Wu have shown promise but proven extremely disappointing for the GOP.

[Ghost]

thanks for posting this Geee. will watch with interest

[Pepper]

Hasta la Vista, Sphincter Specter.

[Geee]

Pressing #1