House Overview: Money Can't Fix What's Broken for Democrats

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Roll Call:

House Overview: Money Can’t Fix What’s Broken for Democrats
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Roll Call Contributing Writer
May 17, 2010, 12 a.m.

After two consecutive change elections in which Democrats won more than 50 seats and took control of the House, we’re headed for another one. But this time, the change voters seek will be away from Democrats, not toward them. A majority of voters believe the country is headed off on the wrong track and are prepared to take their anger out on the party in power.

Everyone sees this coming, and Democrats say they’re prepared to withstand the worst of it. They are resigned to the fact that they will suffer significant losses in the House in this fall’s midterm elections, but they can’t envision specific Members not coming back for the 112th Congress.

It is perhaps a sign of their overarching strategy to keep the races individualized, but even as Democratic strategists, pollsters and consultants agree that their party is likely to lose at least two dozen seats, they have trouble identifying the losers. It’s difficult for Democrats to visualize a well-aware, hardworking, fundraising Member of Congress not being rewarded with another term.

“Everybody thinks the flood is coming, but they think they’re smart enough that it won’t get them,” one Democratic consultant cautioned.

Democrats are going to use their considerable financial advantage to frame this election as a choice between two candidates in each race, not a clash of party philosophies. From there, the goal is to attack GOP candidates across the country and make them unacceptable alternatives.

“I have my toughest time against a generic Republican who isn’t well-known,” Texas Rep. Chet Edwards said. “I have my toughest time against a generic Republican. ... By the end of this race, Bill Flores will not be a generic Republican.”

Democrats want to fight a series of local races. They want voters to think about Bobby Bright as the nonpartisan mayor of Montgomery, not the Congressman from Alabama’s 2nd district. They want voters to examine Idaho Rep. Walt Minnick’s record of voting against the stimulus, against cap-and-trade and against health care reform, even though he’s from the same Democratic Party that passed all three bills.

Democrats Have the Money

Not only are most Democratic incumbents well-stocked with campaign cash, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee held a cash advantage of $26 million to $10 million over the National Republican Congressional Committee through March.

That number will change after spending in the Hawaii and Pennsylvania special elections is taken into account, but the fundamental Democratic advantage will remain. In 2008, the DCCC outspent the NRCC $75 million to $21 million in independent expenditures and picked up another 20 seats.

But Democrats can’t let their cash advantage and optimism about one-on-one matchups cloud the view of reality. “There is a fundamental arrogance permeating the consulting community and the party,” according to one Democratic consultant who has been on both sides of a wave election.

Democrats are doing very well in all of the factors they can control, but they may still be overwhelmed by the political climate. In short, they may have a problem that money can’t fix.

It’s unclear how the Democratic spending advantage plays out when the trends are working against them. Over the past four years, voters tuned out Republican attacks while giving Democrats the benefit of the doubt. But Democrats run the risk of having their attacks fall flat this year because voters see them as flawed messengers. Unemployment still hovers near 10 percent, and while President Barack Obama remains popular, party strategists aren’t sure how much of his personal appeal will translate to other Democratic candidates when his name isn’t on the ballot.

Even more troubling for Democrats is the emerging problem of independents. From the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections late last year to the Senate special election in Massachusetts in January, independents are acting and voting like Republicans after ignoring the GOP over the past two election cycles.

1994 Replay? More Like 2006

Arguments abound over whether 2010 is going to be another 1994, when an electoral tsunami swept Republicans into the majority. There are plenty of differences between the two cycles, but the truth is, Republicans don’t need this year to be that big. Republicans gained 52 House seats in 1994, but they will need to net only 39 seats this fall, assuming the polls are right and they take over Hawaii’s 1st district in the special election later this week.