Obama a Buoy is some States, an Anchor in Battlegrounds

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Washington Examiner:


Obama a buoy in some states, an anchor in battlegrounds
By: DAVID FREDDOSO
Online Opinion Editor
05/15/10 11:34 AM EDT

Over at Real Clear Politics, Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli point to President Obama’s very weak numbers in some of the most critical states of the 2010 elections.

In what I’ll call the “Anchor States,” Obama is a dead weight on Democrats:

In Florida, the president’s net approval rating is -1.7; in Colorado, it’s -6.5; North Carolina, -2.7; Ohio, -7.8; Nevada, -5.0; and Pennsylvania, it’s -3.0. These six states all feature critical Senate contests this year, with the Keystone State also home to a potential bellwether special Congressional race next Tuesday. And five of the six were red states that flipped into the Democratic column in the 2008 presidential election.

Obama’s position is far worse in several other 2008 battlegrounds, as well as red states where Democrats are struggling to hold seats this fall. In Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln trails all potential Republican opponents, Obama’s net approval rating is -28. In Indiana, a state Obama won, his rating is -13. And Missouri, which he narrowly lost and hosts an open Senate race Democrats had thought was a prime pickup opportunity, his rating is -11.5.

In the “Buoy States,” he’ll be a help to his party’s candidates:

The flip side, of course, is that other Democrats facing competitive races in blue states will be safer given Obama’s standing there. The president scores best in states like California (+16.8), Connecticut (+11.5), Illinois (+15.0), and New York (+15.7), where he appeared Thursday at a party fundraiser.

First thought: What happens when Obama’s numbers begin to sag in the Buoy States? For example, just imagine how much worse it could be for Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, D, in Illinois, where Obama is so strong? For Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., who polls in the low 40s?

Second thought: In addition to the Senate implications in states where Obama is weakest, there are also House implications. There are three Democratic seats on the chopping block in Indiana this year; three in Arkansas; three in North Carolina; one in Nevada; six in Pennsylvania; six in Ohio; three in Colorado.

In Michigan, where Obama is also under water (-3.5), there are three shaky Democratic seats. In Arizona (-18) and Tennessee (-26), three each. Two in Kentucky (-20). One each in Kansas (-26.5), Texas (-16), North Dakota (-10), Alabama (-14.5) and South Dakota (-9).

I could go on, but I’m sure you get the picture.