Let’s Not Go All X-Files Just Yet

[Valin]

Power Line

Steven Hayward

June 7 2023

(Snip)

UPDATE: Well, no sooner do I post up this item than a brand new story on Michael Shellenberger’s Public News site offers up some of the details I suggest are missing, though the story is quick to point out that these details are all second-hand:

The individuals said they had seen or been presented with “credible” and “verifiable” evidence that the U.S. government, and U.S. military contractors, possess at least 12 or more alien space crafts. . .  “I know of at least 12-15 craft,” said one person, who said they shared the information with AARO and Congress. “Every five years, we get one or two recovered for one reason or another, from either a landing or that we catch, or they just crash.”

A different contractor said, “There were at least four morphologies, different structures. Six were in good shape; six were not in good shape. There were cases where the craft landed, and the occupants left the craft unoccupied. There have been high-level people, including generals, who have placed their hand on the craft, and I would have no reason to disbelieve them.”

One source described having seen three kinds of craft, including one shaped like a triangle and another that “looked like a chopped up helicopter, with the front bubble of a Huey helicopter, with the plastic windows, or more like a deep sea submarine, with a thick piece of glass bubble shaped, and where the tail rudder should have been, it was a black, egg-shaped pancake, and instead of landing gear it had upside-down rams horns that went from the top to the bottom and rested on the ends of the horns.” . . .

I remain skeptical until I see more. This additional paragraph actually deepens my skepticism:

One source estimated there were only between 100 and 700 individuals in government or working for government contractors who know about the retrieved crash, while another person estimated that even fewer knew about the full program to reverse engineer alien technology. “Maybe on our side, there were three people total,” said the contractor whose proposal to cut through the stovepipe was rejected. “There were 4 or 5 people who I knew of on the aerospace corporation side.”

(Snip)

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Here  is  My Problem with this

Probability Estimate  for Attaining the Necessary Characteristics for a Life Support Body

Notes: Estimate of dependency and longevity factors are accounted for at the end of the list. References to relevant science research papers and books also follow the list. The definition used here for a planet is broad enough to include a large satellite orbiting another planet. For reasons why satellites in general and starless planets are not suitable candidates for a life-support body see Lights in the Sky and Little Green Men by Hugh Ross, Kenneth Samples, and Mark Clark (Colorado Springs, CO: NavPress, 2002), pp. 39-41.

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Probability for occurrence of all 322 parameters ≈ 10^-388

dependency factors estimate ≈ 10^-96

longevity requirements estimate ≈ 10¹⁴

*Probability for occurrence of all 322 parameters ≈ 10^-304

Maximum possible number of life support bodies in universe ≈ 10²²

Thus, less than 1 chance in 10²⁸²(million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion) exists that even one such life-support body would occur anywhere in the universe without invoking divine miracles.

Endnotes

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So it looks like To Quote Alex C. Kramer & Joan Whitney "Ain't no body here but us chickens"

THE question we should  be asking is given these numbers Why is There Life Here?

* This was 2004, chances are that number is larger  today.