Democrats See Red After Latest Major Poll Flips the Narrative

[WestVirginiaRebel]

Red State

As an election watcher, the last several months have been mind-numbing to live through. Despite every historical fundamental pointing to a Republican win in November, the predominant narrative has been that Democrats are resurgent due to Dobbs. Election modelers have even started adding scam PAC polls into their averages just to toss an extra bit of absurdity on top.

 

 

It’s truly been garbage in, garbage out, as most major pollsters continue to use registered voter screens instead of likely voter screens, something that leads to a projection of a positive Democrat environment.

So what’s the narrative? You are supposed to believe that the sizable GOP turnout advantage during the primaries won’t translate to the general election, even though that’s exactly what turnout advantages did in 2010, 2014, and 2018. You are also supposed to believe that presidential approval simply doesn’t matter anymore even though it has mattered in every mid-term going back decades.

In short, everything you know about elections and how politics works, you are supposed to ignore because Pollsters Inc. put out a registered voter survey saying the electorate will be D+8. But as I said back during the summer, once major posters switch to likely voter screens, the narrative is going to shift.

Lastly, it should be mentioned that we haven’t even seen the major pollsters switch to likely voter screens yet. Because enthusiasm is high for Republicans, as evidenced by comparisons of primary turnout, likely voter screens should further shift these results toward the GOP, and they have historically done so.

Sure enough, ABC/WaPo is out with its first major offering of the season, and it has Democrats seeing red and suddenly not liking polls again.

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They see red while singing the blues...