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The Generic Congressional Ballot and Recent History


Geee

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Real Clear Politics

As we reach Labor Day Weekend, traditionally considered the unofficial start of the general election season, it’s worth looking at where the generic ballot stands and whether it is predictive.

Much attention has focused on how and why Democrats have closed the gap on the GOP in the generic congressional ballot in the past few weeks. As one can see in the accompanying graph, Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot in mid-November 2021, and maintained a lead of between two and four percentage points through most of the summer.

Since late July, however, support for Democrats has increased, pulling them into an effective tie with the GOP.

 

What has caused the upward movement for Democrats? Lower gasoline prices, the Dobbs decision, passage of the “Inflation Reduction Act,” and Biden’s executive order forgiving student loan debts have all contributed to bringing many Democrats home, which is also evident in the corresponding rise in President Biden’s job approval rating over the same time period.

The question of the moment is this: Can whatever momentum Democrats currently have be sustained through November 8? To make an educated guess at an answer, let’s look at recent history.:snip:

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@Geee

My take 1. (Once Again) Waaaay  to much emphasis on Polls. 2. Its all  about Turnout. Its all about which side is more Jazzed about showing up to vote (doubly so in off year elections). 3. Most voters vote Against not For a candidate/party. 5. Something I've noticed many Dem. candidates are running/moving away from Slo Joe, particularly in close races. That speech  he gave Thursday night won't be helpful to them.

 

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