Jump to content

The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis


Valin

Recommended Posts

the-elite-overproduction-hypothesis
Noahpinion

Did America produce too many frustrated college graduates in the 2000s and 2010s?

Noah Smith

Aug. 25 2022

Here’s an eye-opening bit of data: The percent of U.S. college students majoring in the humanities has absolutely crashed since 2010.

Quote
 
 
just released new data on degree completions for the 2021 class (the first class with a full semester during the pandemic.) History and Religion have both joined English in being down to half their 2000s peak; philosophy's rebound persists, while area studies falls.
 
Fa4WWdlXwAAvAa6.jpg
 
Aug 23 2022

Ben Schmidt has many more interesting data points in his Twitter thread. To me the most striking was that there are now almost as many people majoring in computer science as in all of the humanities put together:

Quote
 
The downtick in humanities this year pushes up the ETA for when CS is larger than all humanities degrees together to one of the classes currently in college.
 
Fa5AEAhXkAA5uOH?format=jpg&name=900x900
 
Aug 23 2022

(Snip)

d272622c-ad81-4798-9b35-2f397335cab8_831

(Snip)

The government and universities have to be part of this too. Canceling student debt is fine, but long-term reforms to reduce the cost of college, and the debt burdens students incur, will reduce the stakes of the post-college job scramble. Universities should avoid marketing materials that depict them as a golden ticket to wealth and intellectual fulfillment, and should offer career counseling that prepare students for a realistic job market. And government should implement apprenticeships, vocational education, free community college, and other programs that make working-class life a decent bet — in addition to reducing inequality, this will make college graduates feel less “elite” relative to their non-college peers.

Of course, an expectations reset isn’t permanent. If we manage to restore good times, future generations will get used to that upward escalator, and they’ll form extrapolative expectations for their own glide path to success. But that’s a worry for the future. If the Elite Overproduction Hypothesis is true, then our best bet to calm our age of unrest is to bring our dreams down to Earth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • 1711717579
×
×
  • Create New...