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Analysis: Shabaab’s multi-day incursion into Ethiopia


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FDD Long War Journal

Caleb Weiss & Ryan O'Farrell

July 25, 2022

Late last week, Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, conducted a rare military incursion into eastern Ethiopia’s Somali Region. The foray inside Ethiopian territory reportedly lasted at least three days, with the Ethiopian government acknowledging it combated the jihadists inside its borders. 

According to officials in Ethiopia’s Somali Region (also known as the Ogaden), Shabaab militants entered Ethiopian territory through the region’s Afdheer Zone which borders Somalia’s Bakool Region on July 21. The jihadists then briefly took control over Hulhul, a town inside Ethiopia, before reportedly being beaten back after a three-day battle for the town. 

The Ethiopian government, while acknowledging the rare invasion of its territory by Shabaab, framed the raid in a more propagandistic narrative. State officials in Ethiopia’s Somali Region remarked that its forces killed at least 100 members of Shabaab in the counter-offensive, though this has not been independently verified. 

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According to Shabaab, its men killed at least 87 members of the Liyu Police during its attacks on Aato and Yeet, two towns inside Somalia’s Bakool right on the border with Ethiopia. This number is most likely exaggerated, as photos released by the group itself only show 16 killed troops. 

The photos do show, however, that Shabaab was able to capture and burn the Ethiopian bases in both towns. At least two members of the Liyu Police were also shown to have been captured by the jihadists.

Though Shabaab has yet to officially comment on the raids into Ethiopia itself as of the time of publishing. 

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It is here where Ethiopia is most threatened by Shabaab’s militancy and not through any alleged relationship between it and the OLA. Focusing on those alleged links risks worsening the conflict in Oromia, as well as misunderstanding the exact nature of the dangers Shabaab does in fact play inside Ethiopia.

Shabaab does not need to ally with a non-jihadist ethnic insurgent group to mount attacks inside Ethiopia, as made clear by its recent raid. 

The recent foray into Ethiopian territory itself should also remind analysts and policymakers that Shabaab not only greatly threatens Somali or even Kenyan security, but security across much of Africa’s Horn. The future withdrawal of ATMIS and other regional forces from Somalia will likely only exacerbate this regional threat. 

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Puzzles deepen in the context of Shabaab’s attempted Ethiopian invasion

Caleb Weiss & Ryan O'Farrell

July 28, 2022

Last weekend, Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, attempted to mount a sizable incursion into Ethiopian territory. The foray lasted at least three days, with possibly hundreds of Shabaab militants involved, before regional troops from Ethiopia’s Somali State fought the jihadists back into Somalia. 

Over the last few days, however, new information has come to light that warrants further discussion of Shabaab’s raids and the possible intentions of its incursions. This includes a purported second attempt by Shabaab to mount a concerted raid into Ethiopia. 

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Second incursion and more allegations of Shabaab aiding Oromo nationalists 

It is through this context that Ethiopian officials continue to double-down on the contention that Shabaab was attempting to aid the OLA. After Shabaab’s initial three-day incursion was pushed back, official’s from Ethiopia’s Somali State remarked that the jihadist group was attempting to link up with the OLA. 

This line was again repeated earlier this week when Shabaab reportedly attempted to mount a second concerted raid into Ethiopia. According to Somali State officials, the jihadists again entered Ethiopian territory on July 25 through the Ferfer district of the Somali State’s Shabelle Zone, which borders Somalia’s Hiraan and Galguduud regions. 

Much like the first incursion of last week, Somali State officials reported its forces beat the jihadists back, with at least 85 additional Shabaab militants being killed in the second attempted incursion. 

Somali State officials then again stated that this second attempted incursion was meant to also link up with the OLA in Oromia. 

This is unlikely to be the case. While Shabaab most likely has ethnic Oromo members within its ranks, the OLA, as previously stated, is a secular Oromo nationalist group and employs no religious rhetoric. It explicitly aligns with other ethno-nationalist insurgent groups, most notably the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), all of which are also secular nationalists.

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However, the two concerted efforts within the span of a week demonstrate Shabaab’s growing ambition, regional capabilities, and opportunism to exploit regional geopolitics, especially as the Abiy Ahmed government struggles to contain the various insurgencies inside Ethiopia. 

These raids also come as Shabaab has made it a point to intensify its attacks inside northeastern Kenya. In just the last week alone, the group has claimed authorship for at least five attacks in Kenya’s Mandera and Garissa Counties, according to data compiled by FDD’s Long War Journal

Meanwhile, in southern Somalia, at least 13 people were killed a suicide bombing in the town of Merca yesterday. Those killed included the town’s mayor. At least 19 suicide bombings conducted by Shabaab have been recorded this year, according to data kept by FDD’s Long War Journal

As Shabaab continues to resurge inside various parts of Somalia, it also continues to expand its violence across East Africa. Much like with the violence inside Kenya, the recent incursions into Ethiopia are part of this expansion project.

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