The 2022 House Midterm by the Numbers

[Geee]

Real Clear Politics

Midterm elections involve high stakes, a great deal of groundless guessing, and lots of numbers – oddly similar to lotteries. Unlike lotteries, though, the many numbers associated with midterm elections are meaningful. The six meaningful midterm “lotto” numbers below should help historically ground your anticipation of what is likely or unlikely to happen in this year’s House elections, as well as set the eventual outcome in its historical perspective. You will have to use your imagination about the numbered ping-pong balls and the machine mixing them up. On to the all-important numbers.       

Our first number is 7. Since 1912 when the size of the House was fixed at 435 seats, there have been 27 midterm elections. As most everyone knows, the president’s party gained seats in only three of these (1934, 1998, and 2002). But in four additional midterms, in-party’s losses were minimal (fewer than ten seats). 7 glimmers of hope for Democrats.

Our second number is 58. The 7 in-party success story midterms are ordered in Table 1 by the net number of seats gained or lost by the president’s party. Gallup’s presidential approval ratings immediately prior to the election are included, with two exceptions. These are Coolidge’s 1926 and FDR’s 1934 midterms that pre-date Gallup’s collection of approval ratings.

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[Valin]

@Geee

Quote

Why did Democrats lose so few seats that year with Obama’s ratings so low, and could this happen again in 2022?

When asked what happened in 2010, Karl Rove gave a 3 word answer."Get Better Candidates". One of the things that concerns me is the term RINO being thrown around waaaay to much. Anyone who does not shouts  from the rooftops that 2020 was stolen, or does not pledge undying allegiance to Donald Trump is a RINO. 

[Valin]