GOP poised to retake Katie Hill's California seat, as Trump-backed candidate wins big in Wisconsin

[Geee]

Fox news

Candidates backed by President Trump were outperforming expectations in two closely watched congressional special elections on Tuesday night, as former Navy combat pilot Mike Garcia inched closer to retaking Democrat Katie Hill's California seat and Republican Tom Tiffany easily prevailed in Wisconsin.

Garcia grabbed a substantial early lead Tuesday in the fight for the open U.S. House seat north of Los Angeles in the swing 25th District, giving California Republicans a chance to claim a Democratic-held congressional seat in the state for the first time since 1998. With 76 percent of precincts reporting, Garcia was leading Democrat Christy Smith 55.9 percent to 44.1 percent.

Trump lost the district by 6 percentage points in 2016. He went out of his way to promote Garcia in recent weeks as strong on guns and immigration, and some Democrats had hoped he would be a liability in the race. Former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and other high-profile Democrats all lined up behind Smith.

Garcia told supporters he wouldn't declare victory Tuesday night, but added, "It is looking extremely good.”

Smith, however, insisted that the contest was “clearly too early to call” and said her campaign would work to make sure “every vote is counted in the days ahead.”

[Valin]

"If You Go To Bed With a double digit lead, you're going to win."

(former) Rep. John Cambell

[Valin]

GOP sweeps congressional special elections

Jazz Shaw

8:01 am on May 13, 2020

Even with all of the lockdown restrictions, voters somehow managed to make it to the polls yesterday for two special elections and the Republican candidates appear to have locked both of them down (if you’ll pardon the phrase). The first one was in Wisconsin and the result wasn’t much of a surprise. In the Seventh District, the race to replace the now-retired Sean Duffy is projected to go to Tom Tiffany. The 7th is a fairly solidly conservative district and Tiffany had garnered the endorsement of President Trump. (Associated Press)

(Snip)

The Democrats are trying to argue that Tiffany’s margin of victory (14 points!) is a sign that Trump is in trouble. If that sounds like some magical thinking to you, that’s because it is. Trump carried the district by 20 points in 2016, but that was an election that produced near-record turnout. Special elections are notorious for lower turnouts in normal times. Special elections during a pandemic are even more problematic. The margin of error always goes up when turnout is low, so this one appears to be well within the range you might expect.

The other race was at least somewhat more interesting. California’s 25th district seat was vacated last year when Katie Hill (of “throuple” fame) stepped down amid a scandal involving inappropriate sexual relations with one or more staffers. Republican Mike Garcia has a double-digit lead this morning over Democrat Christy Smith. This one is generating some headlines because it’s the first time that the GOP has flipped a blue seat in California in a very long time.

(Snip)

What, if anything, this portends for November remains to be seen. If we’re going to return to something approaching normalcy by the end of the summer and general election turnout is fairly typical, we’re going to have a tight race on our hands. But if the country is still almost entirely focused on the pandemic, keep your eyes open for some very squirrely results. As both Ed Morrissey and I have discussed in the past, most other issues normally being debated will very likely be low on the priority list for voters. Donald Trump is going to be facing a referendum on how well he handled the coronavirus pandemic and, as a result, how that impacts the economy and the employment situation. And the GOP’s chances of holding onto their Senate majority will likely be bound to Trump’s fortunes at the hip.

[Valin]

Progressives score victory in Nebraska congressional primary, setting up rematch with Republicans

James Levinson

May 13 2020

Kara Eastman, a progressive backed by high-profile Democrats including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, captured victory Tuesday in a Nebraska Democratic congressional primary, boosting the hopes of liberal activists.

The win by Eastman – who unsuccessfully sought the seat two years ago -- in the state's 2nd congressional district sets up a highly anticipated 2018 general election rematch with Republicans and serves as a rebound for progressive candidates in 2020 races.

Eastman trounced her centrist primary opponent, Ann Ashford, securing more than 60 percent of the vote as she moves forward to November’s election. It was a significant increase from her first win in 2018 primary when she narrowly upset the moderate Rep. Brad Ashford by less than 1,500 votes. She went on to lose to the current incumbent GOP Rep. Don Bacon.

(Snip)

[Valin]

May 13 22020

Democrats Just Got CRUSHED In Two Special Elections Signaling A Coming Trump Red Wave For GOP. In Wisconsin's 7th and California's 25th Republicans are projected to win but more than that they are dramatically over performing based on polls.

In California mail in ballots could still change the game but even the current mail in ballot tracking has Republicans with a massive advantage. Republicans turned a 9 point disadvantage into a 12 point lead swinging a Clinton district 21 points so far.

Wisconsin's 7th is R=8 and currently the Republican is up 14 points

In November when Trump is on the ballot it stands to reason that his supporters will turn out in droves giving republicans an even larger swing

[Valin]

May 18 2020

 

May 18 2020

 

 

DARN! And me being fresh out of sympathy. SIGH