Analysis: Islamic State claims al-Qaeda started a war in West Africa

[Valin]

Long War Journal

Thomas Joscelyn and Caleb Weiss

May 8, 2020

The Islamic State claims in the latest edition of its weekly Al-Naba newsletter that al-Qaeda started a “war” against the so-called caliphate’s men in West Africa. Independent reporting confirms that the two sides have clashed in recent weeks.

Al-Naba’s editors say that al-Qaeda’s men “never miss the chance for treachery,” as they recently “started a war against” the caliphate’s men in the middle of a “raging Crusader campaign.” In other words, the Islamic State accuses al-Qaeda of launching attacks on its fighters as they were battling the “Crusader” France and its allies.

Al-Qaeda’s branch in West Africa, the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (or “JNIM”), has a significant presence in Mali and the surrounding countries. JNIM grew out of an al-Qaeda effort to embed the jihadist’s cause within the fabric of local movements and organizations. And Al-Naba’s authors accuse JNIM of working with local parties to get the upper hand in the intra-jihadist rivalry.

Al-Naba’s authors write that al-Qaeda’s men “organized their armed movements and fronts in northern Mali” from “all kinds” of groups, including both those who are opposed to the “apostate government” and those who are “loyal to it.” Al-Qaeda has even worked with the “idolatrous” “tribal movements,” according to Al-Naba’s contributors.

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[Valin]

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Mali: Lessor And Larger Terrors

May 11, 2020:

The appearance of coronavirus/covid19 cases in Mali is difficult to measure because there are only about 6,000 medical professionals in a nation of 19 million. Most of the medical personnel are concentrated in the capital and other cities, where less than half the population lives. As a result the reported covid19 infections and deaths is incomplete. So far there have been 35 confirmed cases per million people and two deaths per million. In most of the country covid19 would probably be mistaken for influenza or one of the many other diseases present. Covid19 often kills with what appears to be a case of pneumonia and most of the covid19 dead are elderly. That means in many parts of the world a covid19 death is seen as another loss to old age. The covid19 threat was a recent one, even though the disease has been ravaging China for four months. There has been little of the virus in Africa so far and the first case in Mali was not confirmed until March 25th. That prompted the IMF (International Monetary Fund) to authorize a $200 million loan to Mali to deal with the virus. While most of this money will be stolen, a lot of it will go to covid19 treatment if only because most politicians and senior businessmen are not only corrupt but also elderly.

The Larger Terror

A culture of government corruption created the rebels and Islamic terrorists in Mali, a Moslem majority nation. There are several Islamic terror groups in Mali and largest of them is JNIM (Jamâ’ah Nusrah al Islâm wal Muslimîn, or Group for the support of Islam and Moslems). This is an al Qaeda coalition formed in early 2017 to consolidate the many separate Islamic terror groups in Mali. In part this was a reaction to the growing threat from ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), which is hostile to everyone who is not ISIL and will attack or recruit from the JNIM members like AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb), Ansar Dine, FLM and several other smaller groups. Another reason for the merger was to make it easier to pool resources, especially information and practical advice, and coordinate with other Islamic terror groups in the region. This reduces friction and destructive feuding. Making a coalition like this work is always difficult, especially considering the importance of ethnic differences. The FLM is Fulani (the largest local tribal contribution) while the other groups are largely Tuareg, Arab and some have a lot of foreigners. Note that JNIM did not absorb all of AQIM groups in the area, just local groups that had long been identified with al Qaeda. The income from the drug trade keeps a lot of these factions in business and the Islamic terrorists know that business and religious fanaticism do not mix and keep it that way. Those groups that did not went broke and withered to nothing.

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There has been increasing friction between ISGS and JNIM (and other al Qaeda affiliate). This is not unusual because, worldwide, ISIL demands all other Islamic terror groups acknowledge the supremacy of ISIL. This rarely happens anymore. In areas where both ISIL and al Qaeda operate there is usually an informal truce or, as is now the case in Mali, open warfare. ISIL groups are usually outnumbered but often survive because they are more ruthless and vicious. In northern Mali ISGS also accuses JNIM of collaborating with the security forces against the ISIL group. That is not unusual worldwide but it is unclear if it is actually happening in Mali. What is happening is that ISGS continues to recruit new members from al Qaeda factions. This is how ISIL was created back in 2013 and the practice continues.

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