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Coronavirus in one state (5)


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Scott Johnson

April 6, 2020

Yesterday the Star Tribune featured Jeremy Olson’s 1,300-word page-one story “Minnesota’s COVID-19 response shows promise in helping to slow virus.” Subhead: “Walz said he will be looking this week for updated modeling and any signs of the infection ebbing before deciding on extend his stay-at-home order.”

Olson had previously reported on the model underlying the current shutdown ordered by Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. I checked in on that story in “Coronavirus in one state (3)” and in “No one here gets out alive.”

In his big story yesterday, Olson failed to draw on his own reporting that the governor predicated his current shutdown order (dated March 25) on the assertion that Minnesota would experience 74,000 deaths by the virus absent his order. Last week, in his earlier page-one story, Olson reported that, with the order, Minnesota would experience 50,000 deaths, according to the model employed by the governor. The governor left that out of the announcement of his March 25 order.

Olson’s story yesterday investigated how we were doing and implied a guarded optimism. Olson somehow forgot about the projected 50,000 deaths based on the model Olson reported in his last story. As of this moment on Monday morning, the Minnesota Department of Health attributes 29 deaths to the coronavirus. Olson also omitted the arithmetic that would suggest we have 49,971 deaths to go if everything goes as projected. (Projected by the governor, that is.)

(Snip)

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The problem with Models is GIGO Garbage In Garbage Out.

 

I would also like people to remember the names of those politicians who a couple of weeks ago choose to go (well) Insane, and since then have doubled down on the Insanity.

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