How Trump Can Triple His Support Among Black Voters In 2020

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The Federalist

In 2016, Donald Trump received a slightly higher share of the black vote than did Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008. But he still received just 8 percent.

Now black support for Trump is in the mid-30s. While a 30 percent approval rating doesn’t necessarily translate into a 30 percent vote-share from black Americans in 2020, 30 percent approval is significant. Even if black support for Trump were in the mid-teens on election day, that could swing states like Michigan, Florida, and even Minnesota solidly into Trump’s camp.

 

Some of this increased black support is due to a historically low unemployment rate for black Americans, along with hefty income gains for many black Americans, as working-class and blue-collar wages finally begin to outpace managerial wages. Another reason is surely Trump’s criminal justice reform efforts.

Other issues include school choice, which blacks resoundingly support — and likely propelled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to victory in 2018, because a group of black mothers swung in his favor.