What Could Sink Trump’s Chances in 2020?

[Geee]

National Review

 

Anything can happen before November 2020, from a hurricane to a third-party candidate.

What factors usually reelect or throw out incumbent presidents?

The economy counts most.

Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment, and a sense of perceived stagnation — and were easily defeated.

The 2008 financial crisis likely ended any chance for John McCain to continue eight years of Republican rule. Barack Obama campaigned on the message that incumbent George W. Bush was to blame for the meltdown and that McCain, his potential Republican successor, would be even worse.

A once-unpopular incumbent Ronald Reagan fought recession for three years. Yet he soared to a landslide victory in 1984 only after the gross domestic product suddenly took off at an annualized clip of over 7 percent prior to the election.

President Donald Trump’s economy is still booming. But his opponents here and abroad are counting on a recession to derail him.

[Valin]

3 hours ago, Geee said:

National Review

 

Anything can happen before November 2020,

 

And probably will. Which is why it is silly to predict anything about the 2020 election in August 2019.

[Valin]

 I will predict, this is going to be a turnout election...on steroids! Our friends on The Left really Really REALLY want to defeat Donald Trump. Also not that there is anything like voter fraud, but..................

"If it ain't close, they can't cheat."

Hugh Hewitt