Islamic State wages desert-based insurgency in Iraq and Syria

[Valin]

Long Wars Journal

Thomas Joscelyn

August 7, 2019

The Islamic State is far from dead in Iraq and Syria. Despite losing its physical caliphate, the group maintained enough manpower and resources to continue waging an insurgency in both countries. And America’s partners and allies may not have adequate resources to finish off or contain the jihadist menace, as they “struggle” to hold territory liberated from the so-called caliphate’s grip.

These are just come of the conclusions found in a newly released inspector general report submitted to the US Congress and published online.

The US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), reports that “ISIS has been able to regroup and sustain operations in Iraq and Syria.”

One reason is that both the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) “remain unable to sustain long-term operations, conduct multiple operations simultaneously, or hold territory that they have cleared of ISIS militants.”

The US military has had a small presence in Syria. On President Trump’s orders, the US withdrew some of those forces. The total number of American soldiers in Iraq and Syria isn’t clear, as those figures are contained in the classified portion of the inspector general’s report. But the partial withdrawal has already hurt the ability of the SDF to carry on the fight.

CJTF-OIR told the inspector general that the “drawdown decreased the amount of resources and support available to these Syrian partner forces at a time when they need additional reinforcing for counterinsurgency operations against ISIS.” Local forces “require much more training and equipment now than during the operations to defeat ISIS territorially,” CJTF-OIR said, explaining that stabilization operations and “ground-focused, human-based intelligence” are required “to confront ISIS insurgents effectively.” 

The Islamic State’s three-part strategy

(Snip)