Iran is ready for change

[Valin]

Washington Examiner

Amir Basiri

 July 05, 2018

On Saturday, the people of Khorramshahr, a city in southwestern Iran, poured into the streets to protest against poor living conditions and a lack of access to drinking water. Like many other protests happening across Iran, slogans against the highest authorities of the Iranian regime, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, accompanied Khorramshahr’s demonstrations. Instead of taking steps to address the people’s grievances, the regime responded by dispatching its security forces to crack down on the protesters. Clashes ensued as the deprived people of Khorramshahr refused to back down from fighting for their most basic rights.

Protests like those in Khorramshahr have become quite common since the turn of the year, when economic woes and government corruption triggered nationwide unrest across Iran. But what made the Khorramshahr demonstrations different was that they took place while tens of thousands of Iranians had gathered in Paris to support protesters in Iran.

Called “Free Iran 2018,” the event was attended by high-profile politicians and lawmakers from dozens of countries. The rally had two messages. To the people of Iran: You’re not alone. To the rest of the world: There’s a real and viable alternative to the tyrannical and extremist mullahs ruling in Iran.

(Snip)

[Valin]

Bear in mind this is Pro Protest Snip...not that it may be true/real

Iranian Protests have taken on new, distinct character

July 9 2018

INU - The Iranian people’s anger towards the mullahs’ Regime and their protests against them have taken on a new and distinct character, according to political scientist Dr. Majid Rafizadeh.

In an op-ed for Arab News, he wrote that the protests that began in late December 2017, were vastly different to those that began in mid-2009. A mere nine years ago, the protests were focused on free and fair elections, rather than regime change, but the mullahs failed to address these concerns and now the tables have turned.

These new protests are erupting from inside the Regime’s core base, with farmers, conservatives, and religious people disgusted by the mullahs’ corruption and mismanagement. These unforeseen protesters explained that there is no real distinction between hardliners and moderates and demanded that the mullahs leave office.

The protests, including the most recent ones that have sprung up since mid-June, centre around a mixture of political, social and economic grievances by the people, but they all cite the Regime as the common problem.

This can be seen in the chants from the people, who are loudly saying: “strike, strike,” “we are all together,” “let go of Syria, think about us,” “close your stalls,” and “No Gaza, No Lebanon, my life for Iran”.

We can see that these protests are a major threat to the Iranian regime by the way that the middle and lower classes in Iran are joining together, showing that it is not just one set of problems causing the protests.

(Snip)

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BORAZJAN, southern Iran, July 8, 2018. 2nd day of demonstrations & protests over severe water shortages They're chanting: "Death to The Dictator", "Our enemy is right here. They’re lying when they say it’s America.", "The cowards stayed home, the women joined us", "No fear, we're all together", "Iranians, enough is enough, show your pride"

[Valin]

Iran: Fear And Factionalism At The Top

July 19, 2018:

The religious leaders who rule Iran are divided over how to deal with the growing anger Iranians are demonstrating (in the streets and each other) against the government. One faction of the leadership, supported by the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps), advocates putting down public protests forcefully. After all Iranian religious dictatorship is on a Mission From God and any opposition is un-Islamic and thus punishable by death. A growing number of senior clerics are reluctant to sanction mass murder of fellow Iranians on religious grounds. That approach is seen as ultimately counter-productive because a growing number of Iranians are turning on Islam as well as the corrupt Islamic clerics they see as the source of so many problems. So far there have not been a lot of (less than ten so far this year) demonstrator deaths. The security forces appear to be under orders to avoid killing demonstrators as they would simply giving the demonstrators a reason to arm themselves and shoot back. 

The government is particularly concerned about the persistent unrest in the southwest (Fars province) where Kazerum city (population 145,000) unrest began in April and continues, despite escalating government efforts to shut it down. Even cutting Internet access to the city did not work because people could send texts and videos via their cell phones. The anger in Kazerum was largely against a corrupt and unpopular government. Because the government is basically a religious dictatorship the protestors also denounce Islam, which is the most frightening (to the religious leadership) aspect of this unrest as it attacks the very cornerstone of the religious dictatorships claim to authority. This religious angle could tear the country apart like never before.

(Snip)

Iraq

The growing popular unrest in southern Iraq is spreading. The unrest is largely anti-Iran and senior Shia clerics have openly encouraged the protestors and approved of their cause. One of the complaints the protestors have was the way Iran interfered in the recent (May) national elections. Because of that, the Iraqi government is in worse shape than it usually is. The current parliament ended on June 30 and a newly elected parliament was supposed to take its place. It will be a few months before that happens because of a disputed election and even then the members of the new parliament have to form a new government. Delays like this are nothing new in Iraq. The May 12^th elections were controversial, as is normal in Iraq, and more than half the members of the outgoing parliament want to annul the results but have been unable to do that. There growing evidence that despite (or because of) the new electronic voting system there was a lot of vote manipulation. That has led to agreement on a manual recount. That effort was approved by court decisions and now the May 12 vote results may not be certified and a new government formed until late 2018. The current parliament believes this is all about Iranian efforts to increase control over Iraq and delays in forming a new government suits Iran.

The two largest Shia coalitions (anti-Iran Sadr and pro-Iran Amiri) agreed to form a coalition that would control over 30 percent of the seats in parliament and make it possible, with a few minor coalitions added, to form a government. The Amiri faction control pro-Iran PMF (Popular Mobilization Force) forces and is seeking to repeat the Iranian success in Lebanon with the creation of a Hezbollah type organization. Amiri has used violence against those who oppose, secure in the fact that the police are controlled by a pro-Iran politician (who runs the Interior Ministry). These police are suspected of instigating political violence rather than containing it. Police are never around when groups hostile to Iran are attacked and police are the primary suspects in the recent warehouse fire that destroyed half the ballot boxes used in Baghdad. The fire makes it impossible to recount these disputed votes.

(Snip)

 

 

[Valin]

Iran: The Enemy Within Strikes Back

August 14, 2018:

The continuing popular protests are largely in response to years of lies, broken promises and growing poverty. Food and electricity shortages existed before the Americans decided to revive sanctions (mainly because of Iranian government lies) and the protestors suddenly realized that the main cause of decades of Iranian problems has been the religious dictatorship, which has relied more on lies than virtue to maintain their rule. The Iranian rulers are now viewed as corrupt hypocrites by their own people and that is proving to be very difficult to deal with. A prolonged (but historically not unusual) drought has created water and energy shortages. The Internet and smartphones made it easy for Iranians to quickly and widely distribute photos and videos of how lavishly their rulers and their families live versus the shabby conditions most Iranians have to endure daily.

In response, the government has created new courts to concentrate on “economic crimes” which means any of the corrupt business of government officials who are deemed expendable. The most corrupt clerics of IRGC generals won’t be touched and those are the very people the protestors are most concerned about. Meanwhile, the European nations that signed the 2015 treaty are showing their businesses how they can legally try to avoid the American sanctions. That won’t work because the major European firms have already done the math and realized that continuing to do business with the United States is worth far more than any new business they can get with a chaotic and corrupt Iran. European politicians also fear that the Americans may be right about Iran (untrustworthy, still developing nuclear weapons). China, with the second largest economy in the world, is willing to replace European firms wherever it can and will continue to buy Iranian oil. China, like Iran, is a dictatorship and a police state. While Chinese and Iranian leaders disagree on religion, they agree on much else.

The Israel Problem

A major complaint of the Iranian protestors is the long and futile effort by their government to destroy Israel. Iranian leaders need a win against Israel and they are not having much luck in getting one. This is one reason Russia makes it clear that it sides with Israel when it comes to Syria and a long-term peace deal there. Despite that Israel has concluded that Russian pressure will not persuade Iran to back off on their efforts to install large quantities of modern weapons and pro-Iran forces in Syria and then launch attacks on Israel.

 

Russia has made it clear it will cooperate with Israel to block such Iranian aggression. Russia backed this up by openly accepting Israeli use of Jerusalem as their capital and moving functions normally held in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.............(Snip)