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(Election Night Thread) Michael Barone's guide to election night 2014

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Washington Examiner

 

For political junkies, Election Night is the most fun night of the year — at least until it becomes clear that your side is getting clobbered. Here is a guide to the order in which the returns are likely to come in, based on states’ poll closing times, focusing on the states with seriously contested Senate and governor races. Note that the television networks don’t make projections and most state election websites don’t post state or county returns until all the polls have closed in that state. Ten states with two time zones and New Hampshire, where city and town polls close at different times, will be listed here at the time the last polls close. All times are Eastern.

 

7:00: GEORGIA. Democratic Senate nominee Michelle Nunn will carry black-majority counties in metro Atlanta (Fulton and DeKalb) and south Georgia, while Republican David Perdue will win most others, but the margins matter. Caution: Georgia has 159 counties. If neither candidate gets 50 percent, there will be a runoff Jan. 6, three days after the new Congress convenes. Democrats hope a Nunn victory will offset losses elsewhere and make it harder for Republicans to make the net gain of six seats they need for a Senate majority. Georgia also has a close gubernatorial race between incumbent Republican Nathan Deal and Jimmy Carter’s grandson, Jason Carter.

 

KENTUCKY. Democrats hope to beat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but McConnell has been running ahead in almost every poll. He will likely lose the two largest counties (Jefferson and Fayette) but win most of the 118 others. Big margins in the coal counties in eastern Kentucky, once a Democratic bastion, could signal a McConnell win.

 

VIRGINIA. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has stayed comfortably ahead in polls. A close race could indicate trouble for Democrats elsewhere.Scissors-32x32.png

 


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Udall Is A Loser, But Has He Already Lost?

Steven Hayward

November 3, 2014

 

The numerologists who follow early voting are wondering whether Cory Gardner has already won the Colorado Senate election before any election day votes have been cast, because the large early voting totals appear to favor Republicans so heavily that it is unlikely Udall can overcome it tomorrow. Maybe, in which case we’ll continue to rethink how early voting affects campaigns, etc.

 

Meanwhile, if you needed any addition evidence of what a lightweight loser Udall is, take in a story from The Guardian (!) about how Udall was heckled today . . . by one of his own Democratic Party supporters:

 

 

 

 

(Snip)

An angry voice from the crowd jeered: “That’s not the only thing you stand for! Jesus Christ!”

 

Udall turned to a short, dark man on his left. The senator look genuinely stunned. “I’m sorry?”

 

“That’s not the only thing you stand for!” The heckler was Leo Beserra, a 73-year-old who made millions on Wall Street and, since the early 1990s, has shared a generous slice of that wealth with Colorado Democrats

(Snip)

 

(Snip)

 

 

That's got to leave a mark!

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The Morning Roundup of Some Early-Voting Numbers . . .
By Jim Geraghty
November 4, 2014 6:28 AM

 

From the Election Day edition of the Morning Jolt:

 

A Quick Roundup of Some Early-Voting Numbers . . .

 

Colorado

 

Let me blow your mind: As of the afternoon of Monday, November 3, an astounding 1,463,766 voters had returned ballots in Colorado. Out of that total, 590,653 are registered Republicans; 469,900 are registered Democrats.

 

That’s a 40.3 percent to 32.1 percent split in favor of the GOP and a 120,753-vote margin. That’s amazing.

 

(Snip)

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Posted this on the porch, should have posted it here:

 

Well our polling place had more cars than I had ever seen there. There are only about 20 parking spots and 50 cars. Cars had to park along side of the road. The good thing about this is this is a mainly Walker County. One of the poll people was putting absentee's in alphabetical and there were a lot of those also.

 

Adding that this is the first time ever that I remember not having a ballot that you could not vote straight Party. Had to vote each candidate separately. I remember the Republicans a month ago objecting to something about change in ballots - maybe that was it.

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Everything in WA state is now by mail. We voted two weeks ago. To say we HATE it is an understatement.

 

 

It takes the community aspect out of voting. And the passion. I love hearing stories about the bustle At the polls.

 

And time marches on. Sigh.

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The Morning Roundup of Some Early-Voting Numbers . . .

By Jim Geraghty

November 4, 2014 6:28 AM

 

From the Election Day edition of the Morning Jolt:

 

A Quick Roundup of Some Early-Voting Numbers . . .

 

Colorado

 

Let me blow your mind: As of the afternoon of Monday, November 3, an astounding 1,463,766 voters had returned ballots in Colorado. Out of that total, 590,653 are registered Republicans; 469,900 are registered Democrats.

 

That’s a 40.3 percent to 32.1 percent split in favor of the GOP and a 120,753-vote margin. That’s amazing.

 

(Snip)

 

Fingers crossed!!

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Well I voted Friday last day to early vote, and I pulled the straight party.

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Our polling place only had about 10 in line and in a small room so they are not expecting a big turnout. 2 years ago line was 100 people, but then it was Presidential year.

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Michael Barone

Obama Will Leave the Democrats in Shambles

Before the election results are in, and keeping in mind that there may be some unpleasant surprises for one party or the other -- or both -- it's possible to assess how the Democratic Party has fared under the leadership of President Obama. To summarize the verdict: not so well.

By one metric it has done very badly indeed. When Obama took the oath of office in January 2009, there were 257 Democrats in the House of Representatives. Going into this election there are 201 (including two vacant Democratic seats).

Psephologists universally agree Democrats will suffer a net loss of House seats, for reasons explained in an earlier column in this space. That will leave them with a number probably somewhere in the 190s.

That means a loss of something like 60 seats -- far more than the parties of George W. Bush after six years (19 seats), and slightly more than Bill Clinton at this stage (47 seats).

House race results are particularly meaningful because in the past two decades, much more than in the 1970s and 1980s, Americans are voting straight tickets. Party performance in House elections is a pretty good indicator of support of a party and (when it has one) its president.

Scissors-32x32.png

http://townhall.com/columnists/michaelbarone/2014/11/04/obama-will-leave-the-democrats-in-shambles-n1913585

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Well I voted Friday last day to early vote, and I pulled the straight party.

 

 

RACIST!biggrin.png

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“Victory is in the air,” Mr. McConnell said at a rally Monday.

 

 

Now I feel comforted....

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“Victory is in the air,” Mr. McConnell said at a rally Monday.

 

 

Now I feel comforted....

 

 

laugh.png

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Washington (CNN) -- Even before the polls close in the midterm election, President Barack Obama is sounding gloomy about the Democrats' chances of hanging onto the Senate.

 

"This is probably the worst possible group of states for Democrats since Dwight Eisenhower," Obama told WNPR radio in Connecticut Tuesday afternoon while polls were still open.

 

"There are a lot of states that are being contested where they just tend to tilt Republican," said Obama, seemingly reconciling himself to a grim night for Democrats that could turn his final two years in the White House into a painful experience.

 

 

OK always good when Obama is gloomy...

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Washington (CNN) -- Even before the polls close in the midterm election, President Barack Obama is sounding gloomy about the Democrats' chances of hanging onto the Senate.

 

"This is probably the worst possible group of states for Democrats since Dwight Eisenhower," Obama told WNPR radio in Connecticut Tuesday afternoon while polls were still open.

 

"There are a lot of states that are being contested where they just tend to tilt Republican," said Obama, seemingly reconciling himself to a grim night for Democrats that could turn his final two years in the White House into a painful experience.

 

 

OK always good when Obama is gloomy...

 

 

.....Its someone else's fault

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SD election results to be delayed

Ramsey Cox

November 04, 2014, 03:50 pm

 

South Dakota’s release of election results will be delayed at least one hour on election night.

 

According to The Associated Press, South Dakota Secretary of State Jason Gant announced the delay after a polling site in Shannon County opened an hour late.

 

A poll worker failed to show up to the site, which will now be open an hour later than scheduled.

 

South Dakota was originally scheduled to close its polls and start reporting results at 9 p.m., but now won’t do so until 10 p.m.

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SD election results to be delayed

Ramsey Cox

November 04, 2014, 03:50 pm

 

South Dakota’s release of election results will be delayed at least one hour on election night.

 

According to The Associated Press, South Dakota Secretary of State Jason Gant announced the delay after a polling site in Shannon County opened an hour late.

 

A poll worker failed to show up to the site, which will now be open an hour later than scheduled.

 

South Dakota was originally scheduled to close its polls and start reporting results at 9 p.m., but now won’t do so until 10 p.m.

One late worker messes up the whole state. Sigh.

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Hmmm... I detect a trend....

 

Connecticut Democrats are seeking a one-hour extension of voting hours after polling locations in Hartford were beset early Tuesday by problems including long delays and missing voter registration lists.

"Because of delays and other problems at Hartford polling locations, we [filed] a complaint in Hartford Superior Court asking that voting hours be extended to accommodate voters who were unable to vote or were discouraged from voting this morning," said Gov. Dan Malloy, D-Connecticut, in a statement.

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@clearvision

 

 

Missing voter registration lists.

 

Missing you say? Well I'm shocked...Shocked I say! I suspect a Tea Party Plot.

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