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How Did The Pollsters Do?


Valin

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Hugh Hewitt Blog:

6/10/10

CA Senate (Result) Fiorina 35 (May Poll) Fiorina-15 (April Poll) Fiorina-7

CA Gov (Result) Whitman 38 (May Poll) Whitman 2 (April Poll) Whitman 22

NV Senate (Result) Angle 16 (May Poll) Angle-1 April Poll0 Angle-25

Ark Senate (Result) Lincoln 4 (May Poll) Lincoln-4 (April Poll) Lincoln 12

SC Gov (Result) Haley 27 (May Poll) Haley 10 (Aprial Poll) Haley-7(March)

There are scores and scores of polls from which to pick data points, and I use these 15 different polls to illustrate that their is either incredible volatility in the electorate, that pollsters don't know what they are doing, or that pollsters tweak their samples to get results they or their clients want --or all three.

The key takeaway of course is not to allow any poll or set of polls to influence coverage or behavior as there is very good reason to distrust any particular result, and even sets of polls from a particular point in time.

DailyKos fired its pollster yesterday. Given the terrible track record of other firms, other employers ought to stop paying the invoices as well.....(Snip)
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