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On North Korea, China Prefers Fence


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24china.html?ref=world
NYT's:

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BEIJING — In the best of times, Chinese foreign affairs scholars here say, Beijing grits its teeth while playing best friend to Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s ailing and erratic 68-year-old leader. South Korea’s charge last week that North Korea sank one of its warships, killing 46 crewmen, makes that role exponentially harder.

With Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and about 200 other American officials here for high-level security and economic talks, Chinese leaders face two unpalatable options. One is to mollify North Korea, and risk undermining its efforts to convince the United States, South Korea and Japan that China is a stabilizing force in East Asia.

The other is to join those nations and the United Nations Security Council in condemning North Korea for the attack, which North Korea denies, and risk a wholly unpredictable response from a volatile neighbor.

So far, China has sought to straddle the two, saying only that both Koreas should show restraint in the midst of a brewing crisis. But Mrs. Clinton, who has publicly cited “overwhelming” evidence that North Korea torpedoed the South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, is pressing Chinese officials to take an unequivocal stance. South Korea, which China has assiduously courted as a major trading partner and diplomatic friend, is making the same case.

The sinking and its aftermath have reignited much the same debate that took place last year, after North Korea test-fired a long-range missile in April and conducted an underground nuclear test less than two months later. After balking at first, China eventually agreed to a unanimous Security Council resolution condemning the nuclear test and tightening existing sanctions.

The United States, Japan and South Korea are uniting behind a similarly strong response this time. South Korea is expected to ask the Security Council on Monday to condemn the sinking of the 1,200-ton warship, which it says caused one of the largest losses of military personnel since the end of the Korean War. Mrs. Clinton is pushing Beijing to back the effort.

“The North Koreans will be more easily dissuaded from further attacks like this if they don’t get cover from China, “ said Michael J. Green, an Asia specialist with the Center for International Studies in Washington. “So it’s absolutely critical to Korea and the United States that China send that signal.”

But in discussions that began Sunday, China was resisting, and it has been skeptical of the claim that the North was responsible for sinking the ship. Scholars say such misgivings are typical when China is asked to side against North Korea.

“There’s not much more that can be done to sanction North Korea,” said Shen Jiru, a strategic studies expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. “China basically feels that sanctions or other tough measures only serve to escalate conflict with North Korea, and others tend to agree.”

Still, a small but influential group of Chinese scholars insist that accommodating North Korea has not worked, and China needs to take a new and tougher tack.

“The Chinese government so far has done too much to protect North Korea,” said Chu Shulong, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Why should we protect them? Why should we treat them so specially? I think China needs to change its approach.”

Wei Zhijiang, a visiting Chinese scholar at the University of Tokyo who specializes in North Korea, said that if China decides not to support a Security Council resolution, it should push for some other punishment. “Certainly North Korea must pay the price somehow,” he said. “Maybe apologize, pay compensation and promise this will not happen again.”

China’s reluctance to censure the North is not rooted in affection for its policies. In private discussions, one American analyst said Sunday, Chinese officials express frustration with North Korea’s growing belligerence. But like their Washington counterparts, they say, they have no good option to deal with it.

Officials here worry that more pressure on North Korea will prove counterproductive, and some recent history backs them: after China joined other nations last year in protesting the missile launch, Mr. Kim reacted by pulling out of the six-nation talks, chaired by China, aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. This time, the North Korean government has threatened “all-out war” if it is punished for the Cheonan sinking.

“China remembers this lesson,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “I think this time our leaders are a little bit afraid of Kim Jong-il.”

China’s other worry is strategic: if relations with the North sour because its leaders fear China is aligning with the West against it, China could face an unstable and now nuclear-armed adversary on its border. And if international pressure leads to the collapse of the North’s government and eventually a unified, democratic Korea allied with the United States, China’s power in the region would be weakened.

A collapse could also unleash a flood of refugees across the Chinese border, a phenomenon China experienced in the mid-1990s when tens of thousands of North Koreans, if not more, fled widespread famine in their homeland.

So Beijing has tried to support North Korea while gently edging it toward economic reform and nuclear disarmament. To keep the North’s government afloat, China provides food, fuel and, by some estimates, 90 percent of North Korea’s industrial goods.

It also continues to invest there, positioning itself, some analysts say, for a post-Kim Jong-il period. In recent years, China has bought rights to several North Korean coal and mineral mines.

In February, China and North Korea announced a deal to build a four-lane bridge across the Yalu River that marks the border. North Korea also recently agreed to lease its Rajin Port, giving inland northeast China long-sought access to the Sea of Japan.

Yet despite North Korea’s growing dependence on China, officials in Beijing complain that they have very little leverage over Mr. Kim’s behavior. Mr. Wei, the China scholar at Tokyo University, said China considered it a victory when Mr. Kim agreed this month in Beijing to more communication and cooperation with China on regional and international issues.

The past few weeks have shown just how awkward it can be for China to walk the line between courting the South and propping up the North. On April 27, as his nation’s forensic investigation drew to a close, President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea flew to Shanghai to try to persuade President Hu Jintao of China that North Korea had sunk the Cheonan and should be rebuked.

The following week, President Hu hosted the reclusive Mr. Kim in Beijing. Some Chinese scholars said the visit, Mr. Kim’s first to China in four years, showed their government’s desire to keep trying to push the North in the right direction.

But South Koreans saw it as a slap in the face to their president — who one analyst said had asked President Hu to postpone or cancel the visit — and a reassuring nod to North Korea at precisely the wrong time.

This weekend, perhaps as a conciliatory gesture, China announced that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao would travel to Seoul, the South Korean capital, at the end of the month.

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Everyone is trying to get out of this mess without losing too much face. And absolutely no one wants a surge of North Koreans in their country. One little psycho has the world's largest economies and military in a quandary. Kimmie must be laughing his butt off.
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SrWoodchuck
Kimmie must be laughing his butt off.

Casino67!

 

If he's laughing, it's the insane and coldly detached laugh of a madman, standing on the throats of his countrymen.

 

He fancies himself as the "Hound of the Baskersville" and in reality is a frothing, rabid little cur, with poisonous yellow teeth. The one at the end of the leash, is just as wary of his hysterical snapping, as the one in front of him.

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