2018 Will Be A Bloodbath – For Democrats

[WestVirginiaRebel]

Daily Caller

As President Trump’s troubles mount, the long-standing expectation that Democrats will gain several House and Senate seats in 2018 has only intensified. At this point, many observers are expecting a bloodbath – and they’re right. But for structural, historical, and intangible reasons, expect the bloodbath to be for Democrats as the GOP further expands its dominance in both houses of Congress.

I see five reasons Democrats on Capitol Hill should stock up on life preservers.

1) Trump’s unpopularity won’t matter.Republicans and moderates who like Trump will vote Republican out sympathy with the president’s state of siege, but many of those who don’t like him will vote Republican as well. That’s because Americans tend to like “their guy” (or woman) in Washington whoever’s president and whatever the overall political climate.

The power of incumbency in Congress can’t be overstated – and of course it tends to favor the party already in power. In 2016, 97 percent of House members and 87 percent of Senators running for re-election won. Even in the “wave election” of 2014, the numbers were 95 percent and 82 percent, respectively.

The most effective way, then, for a party to take advantage of a national political mood and pick up seats is to run strong candidates to replace legislators who retire. That doesn’t seem a promising plan for Democrats in next year’s elections.

Right now, 2018 looks to be the first year in the history of Senate elections in which no incumbent retires. On average, seven Senate seats per cycle open up, and there have always been at least two.

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The Democrats' lost year?