Big Swings Do Too Happen

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Ricochet: Big Swings Do Too Happen

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Peter Robinson August 26, 2016 15 COMMENTS

 

On the latest GLoP podcast, @johnpodhoretz noted that polls show Trump down by some eight points, then said that a Trump victory would require a swing “of a kind that is unprecedented in recent history.” (I’m quoting John from memory. I may have a word or two wrong, but you get the idea.) With respect to John — and I do have the greatest respect for my old friend — that isn’t quite correct

 

Consider 1980: One week before the election, as the chart below makes clear, Ronald Reagan could claim the support of only 39 percent of likely voters. On Election Day, he won with 51 percent of the vote — a swing of 12 points.