Afghanistan: Karzais On The Run

[Valin]

Strategy Page:

October 17, 2014:

 

(Snip)

 

 

The new government is cracking down on corruption, in sharp contrast to the previous Karzai administration. Old corruption investigations are being reopened. Karzai often went through the motions of investigating major scandals where foreign aid was stolen. This was largely because the donor nations insisted. These investigations were superficial and soon closed, especially when members of the Karzai clan were usually involved. The first cases reopened are some of the most notorious ones, like the looting of the Kabul Bank in 2010. In 2013 the Afghan MEC (Monitoring and Evaluation Committee), a foreign funded anti-corruption group, openly protested the light sentences and superficial prosecution of those responsible for stealing nearly a billion dollars (most of it aid money) from the Kabul Bank. This sort of public criticism was tolerated by the Karzais because it meant little and kept the foreigners happy. But now members of the Karzai clan involved with these past corruption cases are being prosecuted once more. Some are fleeing the country. They are being joined in exile by a lot of other prominent and notoriously corrupt officials and businessmen.

 

Of particular interest to NATO is long sought investigation of corruption in the security forces. Political influence in the selection of officers, especially senior ones, was always a sore point with NATO trainers and advisers. Another complaint was the theft of money for essentials (like pay and benefits for the troops as well as equipment and supplies.) Bad officers meant poor performance in combat and lower morale. That led to more desertions and it was easier for the Taliban and criminals to bribe soldiers and police. A lot of officers, especially generals, are expected to lose their jobs now. The new government is also rescinding many restrictions placed on military operations. Many of these seemed to benefit the Taliban and it was widely believed that many members of the Karzai government were bribed by the Taliban and drug gangs.

 

The anti-corruption effort is part of a larger plan to increase economic growth and reduce the extreme poverty that has long been so common in Afghanistan. Corruption has always been an obstacle to economic growth. Everyone knew it but when the Karzais were in charge not much was done about it. Now the Karzai clan (still based in Kandahar) faces a crises because Hamid Karzai could not run for president again and the election to replace him succeeded in electing someone who was not under the control of the Karzais. So far the Karzais have not tried to muster enough support to change the constitution or hang on by force. The U.S. has made it clear that trying to use bribes and coercion to change the constitution will not be tolerated. Hamid Karzai and his clansmen have to cope with life after dominating the government for a decade (two terms as president). His successor is prosecuting Karzais for corruption that went on for a decade. Things could get ugly and very costly for the Karzais, even though the clan has already moved a lot of assets, and family members, overseas. Worst case would be the new government accusing the Karzais of corruption and bringing in international agencies to go after Karzai clan assets wherever they are. This is unlikely but not impossible. All the major Afghan clans are guilty of this sort of corruption and no one wants to encourage such prosecutions. But losing the presidency will be difficult and dangerous for the Karzais and his political and criminal allies.

 

(Snip)