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Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate


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republicans-have-an-82-percent-chance-of-winning-back-the-senateWashington Post:

Republicans are strong favorites to retake the Senate majority this fall, according to The Post's new Election Lab model.

 

According to the model, which was built for The Post by political scientist and Monkey Cage blog author John Sides, Republicans have an 82 percent chance of claiming the six seats they need to move back into the majority. Explains Sides:

The main problem for Democrats is that it’s a midterm year — and the president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterm. Moreover, conditions make it difficult for Democrats to overcome this tendency: The economy is not growing that strongly and, partly as a consequence, President Obama is not that popular. Moreover, as many have noted, many seats that the Democrats must defend this year are in Republican-leaning states.

Given these conditions, the political science literature suggests that quality Republican candidates should emerge. This is because quality candidates are strategic: They tend to run when their chances of winning are higher. Thus, many Republican candidates have significant political experience in state legislatures, the U.S. House of Representatives, and in other offices. (In states where primaries haven’t taken place, we assume that the eventual party nominees will have an average experience level like that of nominees in similar races in the past.)

 

Of the two Republican seats seen as potential pickups for Democrats, neither look promising. Republicans have a 94.37 percent chance of holding onto the open Georgia seat and upwards of a 97 percent chance of keeping the Kentucky seat. On the other hand, there are currently eight Democratic-held seats where the Election Lab gives Republicans a better than 50 percent chance of winning.

________

 

Bye bye, Harry Reid?


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Still plenty of time for Republicans to screw up their chances.

I feel quite confident they'll manage to screw it up completely

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Still plenty of time for Republicans to screw up their chances.

I feel quite confident they'll manage to screw it up completely

 

 

 

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is an old tradition in the GOP.

If I may quote @nickydog.....SIGH

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Draggingtree
The State of the Senate Races

By: davenj1 (Diary) | July 27th, 2014 at 11:46 AM

With July almost over, the primaries pick up again in August. Some Senate races have not been set yet as the GOP has not chosen candidates in potentially competitive primaries in Kansas, Alaska and Minnesota. Democrats, because there are more incumbents, have fewer interesting primary races.

With that in mind, it is time to see how these general election races are shaping up. I have divided the races into four classes: GOP seeking reelection and GOP open seats (or defeated incumbents) and Democrats seeking reelection and Democratic open seats.

CLASS 1- Republican Incumbents Seeking Reelection:

There are 11 races in this category. The only one that is not likely set is in Kansas where incumbent Pat Roberts faces snip

Class 4- Democrats seeking reelection: This would seem to be a treasure trove of Republican possibilities, especially since of the 16 races, four of them are in states won by Romney in 2012. Snip http://www.redstate.com/diary/davenj1/2014/07/27/state-senate-races/

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Draggingtree

JULY 28, 2014 — PAUL MIRENGOFF

REPUBLICANS ARE MAINTAINING, AND MAYBE EXPANDING, THEIR EDGE IN BATTLE FOR SENATE

The Upshot, the New York Times’ successor to Nate Silver’s 538, gives the Republicans a 60 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. This assessment is similar to the one Silver rendered in June. Both assessments are based on poll averages. However, the research firm YouGov, in partnership with The New York Times and CBS News, has just released poll results that seem more favorable to the GOP. »

Scissors-32x32.png

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/07/republicans-are-maintaining-and-maybe-expanding-their-edge-in-battle-for-senate.php

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Draggingtree

The July Forecast For November’s U.S. Senate Elections

Mixed news with this edition, as Republicans have weakened in North Carolina, strengthened in Iowa’s open seat, and we introduce a new graphic.

 

By Brandon Finnigan JULY 29, 2014

With most of the primary drama now out of the way, nearly every competitive seat we are tracking for the 2014 Senate elections has its lineup determined, Alaska being the glaring exception. Polling has begun to roll in at a regular pace, and the New York Times/CBS News/YouGov monster dropped on Sunday was hailed by election junkies everywhere as it provided a rare nonpartisan data point in all of the key races. Going from that data dump alone, Republicans are favored to gain eight seats in the Senate and hold their two vulnerable seats by at least four points. However, it isn’t the only data point, so our own forecast differs slightly.

 

We recently switched over to a cartogram. An overwhelming number of seats are held by Democrats, but as their fortunes this cycle have crashed, it certainly doesn’t look that way: Scissors-32x32.png

http://thefederalist.com/2014/07/29/the-july-forecast-for-novembers-u-s-senate-elections/

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